FXUS61 KALY 142156
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
455 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MEASUREABLE PCPN WILL
REMAIN ALONG OR NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK (WARM FRONT)...SO HAVE
FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
OF THE FORECAST AREA....NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD. TEMPS WILL NOT
FALL VERY MUCH DUE TO THE MILD AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND LOTS OF
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
PCPN TYPE IS FORECAST AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN...NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO POPS
ARE NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE PCPN TYPE. TEMPS
SHOULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER LATE MORNING OR NOONTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
ALSO SHARPENS UP AND INTENSIFIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS POURING INTO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD ON A NORTHWEST
FLOW. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID 20S OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST WHERE
THE COLDEST AIR WILL HAVE NOT YET REACHED. ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPS WILL
NOT CLIMB THAT MUCH AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO UP
NORTH...TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH. DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL BLOW AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO IT
WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER...AND THERE COULD BE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES TO
DEAL WITH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW...GENERALLY BETWEEN 310 TO 330 DEGREES
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH INCLUDES EXTREME
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...SOUTHWEST SCHOHARIE COUNTY...AND THE
CATSKILLS FROM GREENE COUNTY TO ULSTER COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THUS...THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD. THE FIRST CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
COMES ALONG SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES DOWN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A COASTAL
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OUT AT SEA DURING THIS TIME TO AVOID
PHASING WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS ON ITS
WAY UP TO NOVA SCOTIA. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
ONLY FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY
NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS. AS WITH MOST COASTAL
SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT TIME-WISE...WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS. THE WIND FLOW PATTERN BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ON MONDAY...JUSTIFYING SLGT CHC POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT FOR
MANY AREAS...MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE
CATSKILLS.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN ONLY THE TEENS AND 20S. FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE PERIOD...PRETTY CONSISTENT HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ARE
EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO THE MID TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THEREAFTER...LOWS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...WE HAVE JUST SLGT CHC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KALB/KPOU HAVE BEEN VFR SO FAR THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
SO FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING AFTN HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATOCU
ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD...AND MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH A BKN-OVC CIG OF 2-3 KFT BY AS EARLY AS THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...KGFL HAS BEEN SOCKED WITH IFR FOG UNDERNEATH A
BKN-OVC DECK. SOME WIND SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN...HELPING TO BREAK
UP THE FOG...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIST/LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
TONIGHT...MVFR FOR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS AS WELL ARE LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA...SPREADING SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL...WHERE SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/FZRA COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY THE
AFTN...INCREASING THE WIND...WHICH SHOULD HELP RETURN VFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHSN NORTH/WEST OF KALB.
WED-THU...VFR. WINDY.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 WERE COMMON ACROSS THE HSA
SUNDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...UP TO...OR EVEN IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WITHIN THE
HOUSATONIC BASIN. IN SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE PRECIP FELL MAINLY AS
RAIN...RISES OF 1-2 FEET WERE OBSERVED ON SOME RIVERS.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIP WAS LARGELY FROZEN/FREEZIN...WITH RISES GENERALLY
1 FOOT OR LESS.
ONLY LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN BASINS...WHERE LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THIS
PRECIP SHOULD BE FROZEN...PRODUCING MINIMAL IMPACT ON
RIVERS/STREAMS. ELSEWHERE...ONLY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AS DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING WED-FRI...ICE
FORMATION IS EXPECTED ON ALL AREA RIVERS/STREAMS WITH PERHAPS THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LARGER STEM HUDSON.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL
