FXUS62 KCAE 031137
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND STALL OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY AND MOVE NE SATURDAY...SPREADING SOME
PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED AGAIN BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SW AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA (FA). THIS IS ALSO NOTED BY A FINE LINE ON
RADAR...AND A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDINESS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME HAS PUSHED WELL TO OUR EAST...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
(LWA) CRITERIA. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBS INDICATE WINDS GUSTING
HIGHER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO THERE IS THE PREMISE FOR SOME
INCREASE IN WIND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE
EXISTING LWA TO EXPIRE AT 7AM. UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SW
TODAY...SO THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST AND
STALL OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE APPROACHING OUR REGION
FROM THE SW. THIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY SHIFT OUT OF THE
REGION LATE TODAY AFTER THE IMPULSE MOVES BY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO
WILL FROM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
REGION FRIDAY...THEN DEVELOPING AND SHIFTING NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO UPPER ENERGY IN A SW
UPPER FLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...BUT KEEP THE
AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MOS
RUNS ARE TRENDING UP WITH POPS FOR FRI NT/SAT...NOW INDICATING
CATEGORICAL POPS. NOT PREPARED TO GO CATEGORICAL AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL TREND THE GOING FORECAST OF HIGH CHANCE UP TO
LIKELY. FORTUNATELY...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL HAVE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS IN OUR FA...ALL LIQUID EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
SUNDAY...WITH REDEVELOPING SW UPPER FLOW AND RETURNING MOISTURE FOR
TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND TWO INCHES WEDNESDAY
ACROSS OUR FA RESULTING IN SOME RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
ALSO...RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL UPSTREAM EXPECTED TO LEAD TO CONTINUED
RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD EXACERBATE THE
SITUATION. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST RIVER FORECASTS...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...07
HYDROLOGY...
