FXUS65 KPUB 101117
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
417 AM MST THU DEC 10 2009
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENTLY...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH MOST AREAS
WELL BELOW ZERO. EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES...INCLUDING EL PASO COUNTY
AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY WEST OF PUEBLO HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...WITH ONSET OF VERY LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. APPEARS SNOW HAS ENDED OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH HOWLING WEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH BOTH MONARCH AND
COTTONWOOD PASSES GUSTING TO AROUND 50 KNOTS AT TIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING.
TODAY...MAINTAINED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS
THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING...BUT REMOVED SOME OF THE VALLEYS AS
EITHER WINDS HAVE GONE NEARLY CALM (I.E. SAN LUIS VALLEY) OR WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS WELL ABOVE THRESHOLDS (I.E.
CENTRAL AND UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY). MAIN QUESTION TODAY IS HOW
QUICKLY WILL TEMPERATURES WARM...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT ENOUGH OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO APPEAR TO NUDGE AT LEAST THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK...ESPECIALLY
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...WHERE 700 MB TEMPS ARE WARMER.
OVER THE PLAINS...MIXING HEIGHT PROGS SUGGEST INVERSION WILL BE VERY
STUBBORN OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH AREA FROM PUEBLO
EAST TO LAMAR REMAINING FAIRLY COLD. GIVEN POOR PERFORMANCE OF MOST
GUIDANCE TEMPS YESTERDAY...WENT NEAR OR A LITTLE COLDER THAN COLDEST
MET NUMBERS MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT...WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES...WITH AREAS ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA SEEING THE BIGGEST JUMP IN TEMPS.
LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY AGAIN MAY DECOUPLE AND BE FAIRLY
COLD...ESPECIALLY FROM KPUB EASTWARD. USUALLY COLD MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH WIND CHILLS MOST
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS EXTREME AS THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS AS WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
.LONG TERM...
...GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED...
EXTENDED CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH ONLY WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
CONTEND WITH. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON THE PLAINS
FRI...AS STRONG OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT MIX OUT IN
THE VALLEYS. A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MTS LATE FRI
INTO SAT...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE WRN ZONES AND ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMS IF ANY ARE EXPECTED. A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES IN SUN
MORNING...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS OVER THE
DVD WITH GOOD OROGRAPHICS AND RESPECTABLE MOISTURE. OVR THE
PLAINS...SUN SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
REACHING 50 DEG OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SERN ZONES. ZONAL
FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA E OF I-25 DRY THROUGH MON.
MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WEAK RIDGING
OR NW FLOW WILL PERSIST. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF FOG/STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
KPUB...FED BY MOISTURE FROM THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND PUEBLO RESERVOIR.
GIVEN LACK OF MIXING...AT LEAST PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST
FOR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE OVER THE CITY OF PUEBLO AND AREAS
AROUND THE AIRPORT. SHOULD STAY CLEAR AND VFR AT KCOS AND KALS THIS
MORNING AS T/TD SPREADS ARE FAIRLY LARGE. ONCE FOG DISSIPATES AT
KPUB BY MID-MORNING...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
AREAWIDE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ058>061-
063-065>068-072-073-075-076-078-080-082.
&&
$$
10/44
