FXUS61 KILN 281802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
102 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
CONTROL THE REGIONS WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS COLD H5 LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND EJECTS EAST...THE FLOW WILL BACK
TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WV AND EASTERN OH LATE THIS MORNING
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPS INTO FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CI MIGHT WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT SUNNY SHOULD BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE NOT
MADE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES THRU THE
PERIOD. AS H5 S/W DIGS THRU THE NRN MS VLY...A WEAK SFC
DEVELOPS...BUT THE FA REMAINS UNDER CONTROL HIGH PRESSURE TNGT.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE OR LIFT...SO WENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AS H5 S/W DIGS INTO THE MS VLY SUN...SFC LOW AND CDFNT PUSH UP THE
OH VLY. ISENTROPIC IS WEAK IN THE MRNG...BUT QUICKLY INCREASES
DURING THE AFTN. 

00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IS SPEEDING UP THE FROPA ACRS THE FA
SUN NGT BETWEEN 00-06Z. MUCH OF THE PCPN IS POST FRONTAL...SO THE
BEST POPS WILL BE SUN NGT.

FNT IS WELL INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. NW FLOW POST FRONTAL
WILL KEEP H8 MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE N AND E. WITH H5 TROF SWINGING THRU
THE LAKES CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA...SO LINGERED A 20 POP ON
MONDAY.

WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WENT A LITTLE COOLER THE GUIDANCE.
ALSO...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...MOS TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM
ACROSS THE S...TRENDED SUNDAYS HIGHS A LTL BELOW GUID.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT.

IN SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONFLUENCE OVER THE REGION 
RESULTING IN SFC RIDGING. THIS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER 
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 

SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO EJECT FROM THE GULF STATES NE INTO THE OHIO VLY 
AND MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS A BROAD TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS 
THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST GFS SOLN KEEPS THIS SYSTEM FAR TO OUR EAST 
WHILE THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES BRING IT INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY. WL FOLLOW THESE SOLN/S SPREADING CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS 
FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTN. WL CONT CHC POPS INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WHEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU. 

WITH BROAD TROF UPR LEVEL ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE TN VLY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE 
MAINTAINED A DRY FCST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WV AND EASTERN OH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SKC
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING SW TONIGHT. WILL SEE
HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 THSD FT IN
THE WEST WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS AND CIGS AROUND 12 THSD FT AT KCMH
AND KLCK BY 17Z SUN. VSBYS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT
POSSIBLY MVFR IN BR AT KLUK AND KILN 11Z-14Z. BY END OF FCST
PERIOD AT KCVG CIGS 45 HND FT WITH VCSH. RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z SUN WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TIMING OF SHOWERS A BIT UNCERTAIN SO FORECAST VCSH AFTER
21Z AT KCVG.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PARKER
NEAR TERM...PARKER
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PARKER