FXUS61 KAKQ 302014
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
314 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST AND MOVES UP ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS
PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCREASING ON RADAR DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS EVENT. THE PRECIP WILL END IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
EARLY TONIGHT AND OVER THE SE PART BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOST QPF
WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER INCH BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WITH UP TO A HALF INCH THERE. SKIES
WILL CLEAR QUICKLY ONCE THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST WILL
GOOD DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING. THE QUESTION ON TEMPS TONIGHT IS
HOW FAST THE CLOUDS LEAVE AND HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS DIMINISH. WENT
JUST A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY ALL MODELS AGREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MAIN
UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING FARTHER WEST THIS MODEL RUNS THE TRACK OF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST. THE SRF AS WELL AS NAM AND
GFS ALL TRACK THE LOW UP TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS SHOULD PUSH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NOW.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER THEN THE GFS ON PUSHING THE MOISTURE
AND FRONT OFF THE COAST. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO FOR
NOW. ALSO NOTICED THE NAM BROUGHT MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS N INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS BROUGHT CAPES UP
CLOSE TO 1000 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT SOLD ON THIS HIGH OF CAPE
BUT WITH THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR AT THAT TIME WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IF THE SLOWER
NAM IS CORRECT AND THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE OFF UNTIL MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT ALL THE PRECIP IS OFF THE COAST AND
COLDER AIR IS ARRIVING.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AS THE CORE OF
TONIGHTS COLD PUSH MOVES BY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS. MOS DOES A GOOD JOB
DEPICTING THIS. ALSO ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS NOT COMING IN
UNTIL LATE AGAIN FOLLOWED A COLD MOS GUIDANCE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTH FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK UP CLOSE TO 60 OR IN THE
60S. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED S FLOW KEEP TEMPS
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH BOTH MET AND
MAV GUIDANCE. DID NOT GO AS WARM AS MET GUIDANCE. FINALLY ON THU
THE MAIN COLD PUSH AT 85H DOES NOT ARRIVE ON ANY MODEL UNTIL LATE
SO SOME RISE IN TEMPS IS LIKELY AND STARTING FROM FAIRLY MILD
CONDITIONS WILL PUS TEMPS WELL UP INTO THE 60S NOT GOING WITH THE
70S MET GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONTG TREND OF MR WWD/INLAND TRACK TO SFC LO PRES MVG NE
INVOF MTNS WED NGT...THEN INTO INTR NEW ENG THU MRNG. AFT INITIAL
AREA OF WAA/PCPN LIFTS NE THROUGH RGN WED EVE...ANOTHER RND OF
SHRAS/(PSBL T CNTRL/E) XPCTD W/ SFC CDFNT/MLVL TROUGH DURG OVRNGT
HRS WED NGT. L/MLVL FLO BCMS SWLY ERY THU...LEADING TO SGFNT DRY
AIR PUNCH INTO FA. LWRD POPS SHARPLY AFT (ERY) THU MRNG HRS...AND
RAISED TEMPS SVRL DEGS F (INTO THE L/M60S). COLDER AMS TO FOLLOW
TO CLS OUT THE WK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HI LVL CLDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH -RA
REACHING AS FAR E AS RIC...RA WILL SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT ALL
SITES BY 21Z. VIS WILL HOLD IN THE MVFR RANGE WHILE VFR CIGS
COULD LWR TO MVR. SW WNDS ALG THE COAST WILL GUST INTO THE 20 KT
RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA
WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND RA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY FOR TUES. DEW POINTS DROP SHARPLY MON NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION TUE MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE THE VFR 
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF COAST REGION WILL 
MOVE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA BUT WILL BRING 
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO EASTERN VIRGINIA. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN AND 
AREAS OF IFR WED NIGHT AND THU. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE 
THU AND BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS PICKED UP OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM 
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NW. SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN 
INTACT...THOUGH CONDS ARE MARGINAL SCA IN MANY LOCATIONS. (CONDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP TO SOLID SCA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING.) 
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN 
BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AS A 
GOOD CAA PUSH DVLPS OVER THE WATERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY 
LATE TUE AM. HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE LOW PRES  
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO S WED 
NIGHT/ERLY THU AS SFC LOW MOVES SW/NE OVER LAND. MDLS ARE COMING 
(SOMEWHAT) IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT DIFFER 
DRAMATICALLY WRT INTENSITY. TOOK A MDL BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD 
WHICH YIELDS HIGHER WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST. FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A 
BORDERLINE SOUTHERLY GALE EVENT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO 
ACHIEVE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W/NW LATE THU BEFORE HIGH PRES MOVES 
BACK OVER THE RGN BY THE WKND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TDA MARKS THE END OF NOV 2009. CERTAINLY BEEN A WET MONTH ACRS THE
FA...W/ MANY AREAS HVG PCPN DEPARTURES OF A CPL OF INCHES ABV NRML.

FOR RIC...
EVEN W/O RAINFALL TDA (THE 30TH)...NOV 2009 WILL END UP THE WETTEST ON
RCRD. OFFICIALLY...AS OF THE 29TH...RIC HAD MEASURED 9.20 INCHES
OF PCPN.

FOR ORF...
EVEN W/O RAINFALL TDA (THE 30TH)...NOV 2009 WILL END UP THE WETTEST ON
RCRD. OFFICIALLY...AS OF THE 29TH...ORF HAD MEASURED 8.78 INCHES OF
PCPN.

WRT TEMPS...
AFT AN UNSEASONABLY WRM DAY ON SUN (THE 29TH)...RIC AVG TEMPS MAY
END UP IN THE TOP 10 (FOR WRMST NOV)...TOPPING #9 (53.6 SET IN
1975) OR #10 (53.3 SET IN 1979).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>633-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...ESS
CLIMATE...