FXUS64 KLCH 302217
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
417 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WHILE
DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH NORTH WINDS USHERING IN COOLER
AIR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
OVER NWRN MEXICO...BRINGING MOIST SWRLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOL WET WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DESPITE A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RAIN TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER TX. IN
ADDITION...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IN
THE SHORT TERM WHICH ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT. WITH THE AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE NERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR COASTAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION...FORECASTED TIDES LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET AT THIS TIME SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR ADVISORY.

ALSO...EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

ALL THIS MESS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE SFC AND UPPER LOW LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
OF THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10
AS TEMPERATURES LOWER INTO THE LOWER 30S. 

MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND WITH
COLD AIR IN PLACE...TRIES TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT! HOWEVER...THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS GFS RUNS AND
ISN'T CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS HAD DECENT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AS OF LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...HIGH SEAS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AND ADVANCES NORTHEAST.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS OF UP TO 9
FEET BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
EAST OF CAMERON BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A GALE WATCH FOR THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF CAMERON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  52  46  58 /  30  70  70  40 
KBPT  47  51  43  58 /  30  70  80  40 
KAEX  41  52  45  53 /  20  60  80  60 
KLFT  46  53  48  60 /  30  70  80  40 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM 
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM 
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO 
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST 
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO 
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER 
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 
     20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR 
     CALCASIEU LAKE-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH 
     ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY 
     TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER 
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM-SABINE 
     LAKE-VERMILION BAY-WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, 
     TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24