FXUS64 KOUN 301134
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
535 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION. OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
LAST ISSUANCE. GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH UPPER LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND ITS TIMING/POSITION IS PRETTY
MUCH RIGHT-ON WITH THE ECM...SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED BY SPREADING
NORTH AND INCREASING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. BIG QUESTION IS IF A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH DEEP COLD AIR NOT IN PLACE UNTIL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL OUT...WE WILL BE LEAVING MENTION OF SNOW TO
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PRIMARILY DUE TO COLD AIR TIMING AND
ELEVATION...AND TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE
TO PROXIMITY OF GREATER LIFT/COOLING NEAR UPPER LOW. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
PRODUCING A BAND OF ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE
NORTH OF STORM SYSTEM...WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH EDGE OF WEAK
TROWAL POKING IN FROM ARKLATEX. THIS REGION EXTENDS ALONG/NEAR THE
I-44 CORRIDOR. IF MORE COLD AIR WERE EXPECTED...WE WOULD BE
THINKING OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. HOWEVER...UNLESS FORECAST TRENDS
SPEED UP COLD AIR ARRIVAL...THIS WILL BE ALL LIQUID AS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
MUCH COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT ODDS WITH EVOLUTION WITH
SECONDARY TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.
MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES CLOSER TO ECM SOLUTION SO WILL CONTINUE
A FORECAST CLOSER TO ECM AND ERODE COLD AIR AT A SLOWER PACE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 32 51 33 / 0 0 20 60
HOBART OK 57 31 48 32 / 0 0 30 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 59 34 46 33 / 0 0 40 70
GAGE OK 60 25 51 29 / 0 0 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 56 32 55 36 / 0 0 10 20
DURANT OK 57 35 53 38 / 0 0 20 80
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/11
