FXUS65 KPUB 252212
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
312 PM MST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)

SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND SOUTHERN AND 
WESTERN EXTENT OF WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION. 

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING 
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 
REGION AS A STRONG UPPER LOW SPINS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WITH A 
WEAKENING PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT OVER WESTERN IOWA AND ACROSS 
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ATTM. REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADARS INDICATING WRAP 
AROUND CLOUD AND PRECIP SHIELD MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 
EASTERN WYOMING AND INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO AND 
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS ATTM. 

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING 
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH THEN 
MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN 
KANSAS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. 
MODELS ALSO INDICATE WEAKENING PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS CENTRAL 
NEBRASKA TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES 
TO DIG DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. PROGGED MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL 
KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES NORTH AND EAST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. AT 
ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEST 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS...PALMER DVD REGION THROUGH 
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KIOWA COUNTY WITH PROXIMITY TO PASSING SYSTEM. 
WITH CAA AND SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT...HAVE 
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT 
ACCUMS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES. GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN 
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST 
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS 
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING 
SATURDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO EASE THROUGH THE 
EVENING AND WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MOVING 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SHOULD SEE A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT 
ACROSS THE HIGH MT VALLEYS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE 
EASTERN PLAINS...SHOULD SEE LOWS STAYING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 
TEENS WHICH WOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 
ZERO ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES 
ATTM. A SLOW WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY THOUGH 
WILL STILL SEE HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. -MW 

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)

MIDWEST UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING WINDS AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
OVER THE AREA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS EAST AS DIFFUSE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MON NIGHT. THUS EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND BOTH SUN AND MON...THOUGH EXTENT OF THE WARM-UP WILL
BE LIMITED BY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND POOR MIXING...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO BRING SOME MOISTURE EASTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DOUBT THIS WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN
TO SHOW UP LATE MON/TUE...AS GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEAKER
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHILE EUROPEAN KEEPS SYSTEM A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS PRODUCES MORE PRECIPITATION AS IT LIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AT THIS
POINT AND KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH WED.

FOR THEN END OF THE WEEK...EUROPEAN DRIVES A STRONG WAVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THU...WITH FAIRLY COLD SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR FRI. GFS HAS MUCH
FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE U.S....WITH WEAKER SURFACE HIGH AND COLD
AIR WELL TO THE EAST. HPC PROGS LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER
EUROPEAN...SO WILL TREND THU/FRI GRIDS THAT WAY AS WELL. COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THU/THU NIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS
SOUTH...THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.  --PETERSEN

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR NEXT 
24 HOURS...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY 
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS TO 
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO 
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MTS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE PALMER DVD. -MW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/10