FXUS61 KCAR 010808 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
307 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SC CLD CVR WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THRU THIS MORN...THEN
ANOTHER WEAK S/WV FROM QB WILL RESULT IN MORE GENERAL CLD CVR
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFT AND EVE...ALONG WITH
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SN SHWRS SPCLY ACROSS THE NW PTN OF THE
FA. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED LIFT WITH
THIS S/WV...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HALF INCH OR MORE ACCUMULATION IS
XPCTD FROM ANY SN SHWRS LATE THIS AFT INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. SN
SHWRS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TNGT...BUT SC CLD CVR WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ACROSS THE NW UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS...BUT CLD CVR WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPS ABV
NORMAL TNGT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK RDG AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS FCST TO XTND NNW-SSE JUST W OF
THE FA AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WED AM... THIS RDG
WILL CREST THE FA DURING THE DAY WED THEN MOVE OFF TO THE E OF THE
AREA BY ERLY WED NGT AS DEEPENING LOW PRES BEGINS TO LIFT NEWRD
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FROM THE TN VALLEY. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTS TO SUPPORT A RATHER MILD WX EVENT FOR OUR REGION
W/ PRIMARY LOW PRES LIFTING FROM THE ERN TN VALLEY LATE WED NEWRD
INTO NYS BY ERLY THU. THIS IS XPCTD TO LEAD TO AN INCRSGLY MILD
AND MOIST SERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION LATER WED NGT THRU THU. LOW
PRES IS THEN FCST TO TRACK FROM NYS NEWRD ACROSS OR JUST TO THE N
OF THE AREA LATER THU AND NE OF THE REGION BY LATE THU... EVEN THE
COOLEST MODEL SOLNS SUGGEST A MAINLY LIQUID EVENT W/
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP JUST AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE N AND NW.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND STRONG WNDS STILL A PSBLTY W/
THIS SYSTEM...
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRES FCST TO LIFT N AND E OF THE AREA THU NGT W/
STEADIER PRECIP GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO WRAP
BACK IN FROM THE W. HGH PRES THEN BUILDS S OF THE REGION W/
DECAYING LOW PRES TO THE N. THIS PTRN SUPPORTS A FEW SW- ACROSS
MAINLY NRN AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT NOTHING MAJOR... LOW PRES IS
FCST TO PASS SE OF THE REGION LATER SAT NGT AND SUN W/ A NWRLY
FLOW OF CHILLY AIR TO FOLLOW FOR LATER SUN THRU MONDAY.  
&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MSLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF HI MVFR BKN-OVC SC CLD CVR
AFFECTING NRN TAF SITES ERLY THIS MORN AND AGAIN LATE TNGT
AND ERLY WED MORN. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD IFR CONDS XPCTD TO SPRD
FROM SW-NE LATER WED NGT AND PERSIST THRU THU. MAINLY VFR CONDS
THEN XPCTD FROM THU NGT THRU SAT W/ OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR PSBL
MAINLY ACROSS THE N IN ANY SW-.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT MARGINAL SCA FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND WV
HTS TO 5 FT OR SO FOR OUTER WATER ZONES THRU MID MORN...BUT
BELIEVE BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
SCA TO BE DROPPED FOR THE LATE MORNING CWF UPDATE. FOLLOWING THIS...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS AFT THRU WED.

SHORT TERM: GLW CONDS LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS FROM LATE WED NGT
THRU THU. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HDLNS REGARDING THIS EVENT UNTIL
THE CURRENT SCA RUNS OUT LATER TDY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/KHW