FXUS62 KMHX 012041
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
341 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT AS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE STRONG LOW
WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY WEDNESDAY TO THE NORTHEAST
STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...AND A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY GRAZE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE GOOD THIS EVENING WITH A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP THEN READINGS
WILL STEADY AFTER 06Z AS MORE OPAQUE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS. FORECAST
LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO OLDER FORECASTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S
WHICH IS JUST 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DOUBT
MUCH IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS BEFORE 14Z BUT WILL INTRODUCE 20-30%
POPS SW ZONES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SURGE NORTH TOWARD NC. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES NE OUT OF THE GULF. A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM: 1) HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 2)SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
3)STRONG GRADIENT WINDS FROM DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY TO THE
OUTER BANKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 4)MINOR SOUND
SIDE FLOODING INITIALLY OVER COASTAL MAINLAND HYDE/DARE COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE OUTER BANKS THURSDAY.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF STREAM WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.75" WHICH IS MORE THAN 2
SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER. PERSISTENT UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL
SUPPORT LONG TERM/STRONG LIFT OF THE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. RAINFALL OF 1-2"
IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SINCE FFG VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH WITH LI VALUES BARELY BELOW ZERO AND
MAXIMUM CAPES GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS. THE MODELS MAY BE
UNDER DOING SURFACE DEWPOINT ADVECTION AND THUS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THOUGH SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH SITUATION VERY CLOSELY. SPC HAS AREA
UNDER SLIGHT RISK WITH A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VEER FROM SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SW THURSDAY. WITH ABOVE NORMAL WATER
LEVELS AND HEAVY RUNOFF INTO THE TIDAL CREEKS FROM HEAVY RAIN THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING MAINLY OVER MAINLAND
AND OUTER BANKS HYDE AND DARE COUNTIES. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT FOR THIS. 

FOLLOWED A SREF SOLUTION FOR THIS CYCLE WITH NO DRY SLOTTING AND
AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN INDICATED BY THE GFS MODEL. WILL END
RAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RISING LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE 60S WITH
LITTLE TEMPERATURE FALL EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S IN
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. TRICKY FORECAST
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE GRAZES THE COAST WITH COLD AIR STILL IN
PLACE. RIGHT NOW LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR A
COLD RAIN BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE MODELS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...THINK BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE SEE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN OVERNIGHT BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
WIDESPEAD RAIN WILL LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY AND LIKELY
MVFR/IFR FROM WEDS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND COULD SEE BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR IN PRECIP OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 150 PM WEDS...WEAK FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE
FOR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE GALE WARNINGS FOR
ALL BUT THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO BEGINNING ON WEDS AFTERNOON AND RUN
MIDDAY TO LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. GFS/NAM12 STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH STARTING AROUND MIDDAY ON WEDS. WINDS SUBSIDE QUICKLY AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GFS AND HPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME WEAK SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT JUST OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AND HAVE BEEFED UP WINDS AND SEAS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

SWAN DID NOT INITIALIZE THE WAVES WELL AND TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. THIS INDICATES SEAS AS HIGH AS 12 TO 13 FEET
DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT WEDS NIGHT/THURS. SOME COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ON SOUTH FACING
BEACHES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE DEPARTURES BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
COASTAL FLOOD/HIGH SURF ADVISORIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     AMZ135-150-152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY 
     FOR AMZ130.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...CTC
MARINE...CTC