FXHW60 PHFO 110130
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN NORTH OF THE STATE WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
RETURN OF THE TRADES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OUT AND THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AGAIN. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FEW SHOWERS AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN NORTH OF THE STATE...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A SHORT-LIVED RETURN OF TRADE WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL ONLY REACH MODERATE STRENGTH. THIS
WILL FOCUS THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR TOWARDS WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN SLOPES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. THE HIGH MOVES OUT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONT PUSHES A RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS...WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS LOW OVER THE REGION...WITH VALUES
REACHING ONLY 1.03 AND 1.12 INCHES FOR THE 00Z LIHUE AND HILO
SOUNDINGS RESPECTIVELY. GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING LOW
UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO ABOUT 3300 FT AT BOTH LOCATIONS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE STATE WHICH IS INDUCING INCREASED SUBSIDENCE.
NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS DIFFERS
SOMEWHAT. GFS HAS IT COMING IN WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE ECMWF HAS IT
COMING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME
ALSO...DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD HELP INDUCE
INCREASED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE NORTHWEST SWELL HAS DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SO THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR ALL ISLANDS.
ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH SURF HEIGHTS
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY LOWER INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HARRISON/POWELL
