FXUS63 KOAX 221123
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
523 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LIMITED TIME FOR AFD DUE TO VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
CWA THIS FCST PD. BOTTOM LINE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
POTENT SYSTEM EJECTING ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DELINEATION OF
LIQUID/FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN TYPE IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST WITH WARM
AIRMASS LIFTING NWD AHEAD OF SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO KS AND CAA
FILLING IN BEHIND. GIVEN LATEST PROGS CONCERNING THE SFC LOW
MOVEMENT...AM THINKING THAT WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE
SNOW/SLEET MIX WED MORNING THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY AFTERNOON. FOR
THE ERN CWA...FREEZING RAIN WED MORNING THEN JUST RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT ALL SNOW WEST CWA WITH GRADUAL
CHANGE EAST WITH RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX TURNING TO SNOW THURSDAY
MORNING. AT THIS POINT APPEARS THAT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
EVENTS END FRIDAY AFTN COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 10-14 INCHES
NORTHEAST-EAST CENTRAL NEB...WITH 6-9 INCHES SOUTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. BLOWING SNOW/NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY OCCURRING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO JUST
CONTINUE WATCH FOR NOW. HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARS TO STILL BE IN
QUESTION. RUN-TO-RUN GEM/GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND GRADUAL
SHIFT OF SW-NE ORIENTED ACCUM AXIS JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA.

AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

06Z TAFS

WK SFC FNT CONTS TO MAKE PROGRESS SWD THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LO PRES. DIRECTLY BEHIND THE LOW...IFR CIGS ARE
PRESENT. EXPECTED THIS TO CONT TO PUSH SWD INTO OMA/LNK EARLY THIS
MRNG. THE IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VISBY SHLD CONT THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY -FZDZ/DZ IS POSSIBLE TDY...IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS ATTM AND THUS THEY ARE DRY
THRU 06Z TNGHT. BETTER CHC OF PRECIP WL PUSH INTO LNK/OMA TERMINALS

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-045-052-053-067-068-089>093.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NEZ050-051-065-066-078-088.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042>044.

IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-090.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR IAZ080-091.

&&

$$

DEE/JB