FXUS64 KTSA 051200
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATE
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TRANSLATING AWAY FROM THE AREA WHILE ANOTHER DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. FAIR BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SECOND SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND TODAY AND HUMIDITY
DROPPING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED TO MARGINALLY
ELEVATED FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TO AFFECT THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STENGHTHEN ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS/WRF BOTH SUGGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY WITH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DECREASING SHARPLY THROUGH THE 285-295K
SURFACES. INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND THEN ENDED THEM FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY DRY AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION SO SNOW IS DOUBTFUL BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE EVENT ENDS NERN OK/NWRN AR.
A MAJOR SYSTEM IS POISED TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SRN ROCKIES THEN
TRANSLATING IT SWIFTLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ECMWF SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRANSLATION ACROSS
OUR REGION. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY'S SYSTEM...SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
EXPECTING RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THEN COLUMN SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW CHANCES
ACROSS NERN OK/NWRN AR TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN THE QUICKEST AND
FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST SNOW
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412 BEFORE
SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO AFFECT THE
AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AT THE EARLIEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 48 31 41 26 / 0 0 30 20
FSM 47 27 42 30 / 0 0 30 40
MLC 49 34 44 30 / 0 0 30 20
BVO 47 27 42 22 / 0 0 30 20
FYV 44 26 41 27 / 0 0 30 40
BYV 43 26 43 27 / 0 0 30 40
MKO 47 30 43 25 / 0 0 30 30
MIO 47 28 41 24 / 0 0 30 20
F10 47 33 44 25 / 0 0 30 20
HHW 49 33 44 34 / 0 0 30 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...17
