FXUS61 KCLE 082013
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
313 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOT'S GOING ON TODAY. FIRST...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET. HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT KFDY ALREADY. CALLS
TO THE AREA INDICATE THAT IS JUST FLURRIES. TEMPS MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
MID 20S. DEW POINTS WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO COME UP AFTER THE PRECIP
STARTS. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM THE LOW DEW POINTS COULD LEAD TO
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP AT ONSET. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROBLEMATIC ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA WHERE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
ARE THE LOWEST. APPEARS THAT THE MIXED PRECIP COULD INCLUDE SOME
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN THIS AREA AND HAVE DECIDED TO PUT UP A
BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LAKESHORE AREAS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND WILL NOT GET A HEADLINE. FURTHER W AND S THE MIXED SNOW
AND RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. EXPECT EARLY LOWS
AND THEN WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS COULD BE IN THE
40S BY DAYBREAK. DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW WILL GET GOING IN ERIE COUNTY
PA OVERNIGHT. GUSTS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DOWN A FEW TREES SO
HAVE DECIDED TO START A HIGH WIND WARNING A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY IN THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS A
NICE SET UP FOR STRONG WINDS AND ALL AREAS WILL GET A HIGH WIND
WARNING WITH A DEEPENING LOW PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH. THERE
SHOULD BE A DECENT DRY SLOT WORKING IN BEHIND THE LOW AND EXPECT
THERE TO BE A PRECIP LULL DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS
WAS CHALLENGING TO HANDLE IN THE NEW FORECAST. WILL NEED TO GO
WITH HIGH POPS ALL AREAS BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EARLY AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.
WESTERN AREAS WILL GET A SHSN MENTION BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEG 20 DEG AIR AT 850 MB WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FLOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
FROM SW TO WEST. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT ONCE THE LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE GETS SET UP...SOME AREAS IN NW PA COULD SEE SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. NORMALLY...WE WOULD ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT WATCH AT
THIS POINT. BUT...GIVEN ALL OF THE WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH EVEN COLDER WIND
CHILLS. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF KCLE. TEMPS ALOFT
GET COLD ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO JUSTIFY A THUNDER MENTION IN THE
SNOWBELT. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE MAINLY DRY. TEMPS
WILL BE A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOCATIONS SUCH AS
MANSFIELD WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 20 FOR A HIGH ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD END
BY SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS ATTEMPT
TO WARM TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
MODELS THEN STRUGGLE ON WHEN TO BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TOUGH NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL ASSIST IN LOWER THE CEILINGS TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AND OTHER WINTRY TYPES TRANSITION THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
A KCLE TO KCAK LINE.
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ERIE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL THEN WAIT FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL REACH NW OH BY LATE MORNING THEN SWEEP
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NON VFR MAINLY
SNOW BELT AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER LAKE ERIE...THUS RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY INCREASED
WINDS. WILL NOW OPT FOR A STORM WARNING AS 50 KNOTS NOW LOOKS
LIKELY. GALES FOLLOWING THE STORM FORCE WINDS NOT ENDING UNTIL
PROBABLY LATE THU NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL PROVIDE A DIMINISHED FLOW
LATER FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND ON SAT. SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS FOR SAT
NIGHT AND MAY SHIFT TO NW BY SUN NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT BUT MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. PRESENT
THINKING IS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR
SCA ON THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR OHZ014-023.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
PAZ003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR PAZ002-003.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
PAZ001-002.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ061-142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...ADAMS
