FXUS63 KDDC 152209 CCA
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO ILLINOIS WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE ALREADY SHIFTING TO LIGHT SOUTH AT DODGE CITY AND WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MORNING. SOME CIRRUS WILL
ALSO INCREASE MAINLY NORTH AS THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE EASY TONIGHT AND COULD FALL THE
GREATEST THIS EARLY EVENING UNTIL SOUTH WINDS INCREASE MIXING. ALSO
STILL SNOW COVER FROM NEAR JETMORE AND NORTH WILL MAKE FOR COOLER
LOWS AGAIN. FOR NOW GUIDANCE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS WITH AROUND 5 TO 10 AT HAYS. FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH RIDGING MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH EARLY DECREASE AS A WEAK WIND
SHIFT AND COLD FRONT TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE. THIS WIND
SHIFT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 40S WITH GOOD MIXING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BUT STILL BE COOLER IN THE SNOW PACK AREAS AND IN THE MID 30S. THE
FAR SOUTHWEST COULD MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 50S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOOK FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS IN THE
TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH LOOK REASONABLE. THEN FOR THURSDAY COLDER
AIR CONTINUES FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 40S BUT ONLY IN THE 30S FOR THE NORTH.
GUIDANCE HIGHS HAVE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH CIRRUS CLOUDS COME IN WE COULD BE TOWARD THE MID 40S.
DAYS 3-7...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL TOP THE RIDGE
AND APPROACH KS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY
DRY SYSTEM, AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD. A FEW
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT BEST. IN THE ABSENCE OF ARCTIC
AIR, MAXES SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD SHOT ARRIVES. I BUMPED UP MAXES INTO THE 40S FROM DDC
SOUTHWEST, BUT KEPT SOME 30S IN THE SNOW COVERED NORTH NORTHEAST
COUNTIES.
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOW A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS BY MON/TUE WITH PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR POISED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS INTO THE COLD AIR. EVEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE INITIAL MOIST RETURN FLOW. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM
IS UNKNOWN THIS FAR OUT, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
KIND OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION.
&&
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ALONG WITH A RESUMPTION OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 17 47 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 16 48 21 49 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 23 53 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 21 52 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 8 36 17 38 / 0 0 0 0
P28 17 48 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN06/24
