FXUS61 KILN 011738
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1238 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES EAST
TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OUT OF THE GULF STATES. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY EXIT
TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PULLING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR
TO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE COULD
SEE A FEW CIRRUS PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z ILN
RAOB WITH FULL SUN IS SUPPORTING A HIGH OF ABOUT 47 DEGREES. WE DO
GET INTO A LITTLE BIT OF WAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO THINK CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS OF UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S SEEM REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES TO THE NORTH...AN ENERGETIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT WILL BASICALLY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AND A SOUTHERLY WIND TURN EASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW IN THE MS/AL REGION.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE LOW QUICKLY REACHES
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY 0Z THURS. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A STEADY TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR NORTHWEST
CWA AND INDIANA COUNTIES...AND A WARM SURGE IN THE SOUTHEAST NOTED
PRIMARILY LATER IN THE EVENING. BY THURS MORNING...THE LOW IS OUT
OF OHIO AND MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
KICKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
WRAP IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR AND HAMPER THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LINGERING SHOWER. DAYTIME TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO RISE MUCH. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SNOW
MIXED IN WITH THEM...ON THE PRECONDITION OF THE SHOWERS ACTUALLY
BEING PRESENT.
TYPICALLY WOULD NOT HAVE CHANGED MUCH ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS WERE
ALL TRENDING DRY. TOOK THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THIS DAY OUT
BUT SAW THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY SHOWER AS VERY REAL...WHETHER OR NOT .01 MEASURES TO
INCLUDE AN ACTUAL PERCENTAGE IN THE VERBAGE FOR THIS DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODELS A BIT WARMER WITH SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK. GFS
AND ECMWF SIMILAR WITH LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS NY STATE BY
12Z THU MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVEMENT
OF UPPER LEVEL TROF THU AND FRI THAN ECMWF. FORECAST WILL TREND
TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON THU. FORECAST AREA WILL SEE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END LATE FRI AFTERNOON. AS
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A LARGE DIVERGENCE THIS WEEKEND WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE. WILL FOLLOW SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD MAY BE SOME
OF THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS YEAR. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS AFTER FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS SAT OR SUN IF THE SLOWER ECMWF TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL LIFT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AND GEM AND HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE...SPREADING PCPN UP
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH LATE MORNING. AS PCPN DEVELOPS...MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR OR LOWER CIGS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PARKER
AVIATION...JGL
