FXUS63 KGLD 241736
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1036 AM MST THU DEC 24 2009

.UPDATE...
525 AM MST THU DEC 24 2009

UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TO REFRESH WINTER HEADLINE WHICH CHANGED AT
5 AM MST /6 PM CST/ WITH WARNING EXPIRATION. ALSO TRIMMED THE END
TIME OF TODAYS BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST /6 PM
CST/. SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

ADJUSTED TODAYS WIND GRIDS UPWARD TO GET ZONE WORDING TO READ 40
MPH GUSTS. MODELS SEEM TO BE UNDERESTIMATING WIND SPEEDS TODAY IN
LOW LEVELS. THE LATEST VWP AT GLD HAS 50 KTS AT 500 METERS AGL.
WINDS AT SOME ASOS SITES ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THIS MORNING ALL AREAS WITH WIND
SPEEDS DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO
COUNTIES.

DLF
&&

.DISCUSSION...
315 AM MST THU DEC 24 2009

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS MORNING CONCERN POTENTIAL AND TIMING FOR
STRONG WIND AND LIGHT SNOW NEXT TWO DAYS.

COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS INCREASED LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA...SEEMINGLY TIED TO
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 800-600 MB LAYER. THIS IS RELATED
TO THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT IN LOW TO MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST. KEPT MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION...BUT DROPPED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AS BAND OF FORCING MOVES EAST AND UPSTREAM DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL ALSO
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SUN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND CENTRAL.

NEXT ISSUE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE
WINDS FRIDAY AS THE TWO UPPER SYSTEMS MERGE AND DUMBBELL AROUND
ONE ANOTHER. ALTHOUGH THE MORNING SHOULD BY DRY...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE DEEP COLD POOL FROM THE MONTANA SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SO DEEP NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE SFC TO 500 MB LAYER WILL
PROVIDE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION. MOST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL BUT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR
SO OF NEW SNOW. WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SURFACE TO 1 KM WIND FORECAST SHOWS 40-45 KTS WITH BUFKIT HINTING
AT 50-60 KTS AROUND 5000 FT. INCREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS TO GET
WORDING TO 45 MPH TOMORROW. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING FRIDAY IF
THIS PANS OUT AND WILL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE WIND FORECAST.

NO CHANGES MADE TO SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

DLF
&&

.AVIATION...
1036 AM MST THU DEC 24 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...  VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND 
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO 
DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE 
AGAIN INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

KJ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON 
     FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON 
     FOR NEZ079>081.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     COZ090>092.

&&

$$