FXUS63 KGID 111749
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1149 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. CLEAR...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE. AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR FOG OR IFR/MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS
MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND THE FOG/STRATUS POSSIBILITY APPEARS
TO BE A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA VERSUS SOUTH
CENTRAL AREAS. FOR THESE REASONS...ALONG WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE 
THAT IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME...DECIDED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST VFR FOR NOW BUT HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WORSE
CONDITIONS BY INCLUDING A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD MENTION. LATER
FORECASTS MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE TO INSERT AN MVFR/IFR MENTION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/ 

AVIATION...12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLEAR...VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED AND WINDS FROM A SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH DIRECTION. IN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE TAF SOME MVFR CLOUD
COVER MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE BUT JUST KEPT THINGS SCATTERED FOR NOW
AS KGRI WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND DAY TO
DAY TEMPERATURE SWINGS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
SATURDAY...COLDER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WARM UP WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EASTERN CONUS
MAKING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE
WARMING WINDS....ALONG WITH WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH.

SATURDAY BECOMES MORE TRICKY WITH THE CONTINUATION OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. EXPECT A STRONG INVERSION DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SNOW COVER
THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...BUT MORE
DREARY...AND STILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM TO
ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITH A SUBFREEZING AND SATURATED LOW
LAYER...ALONG WITH SOME TURBULENT MIXING...WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES. FREEZING
DRIZZLE THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATER FURTHER EAST OF OUR CWA.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS ALSO VERY COMPLEX WITH YET ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT POISED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT QUESTIONS
REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW COLD DOME OF AIR...BUT IT WILL BE VERY CHILLY WITH THE
FRONT PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. IF IT PASSES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN OUR CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH TOO
WARM. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING THEN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT.

ONE THING SEEMS FAIRLY CERTAIN...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
COLD AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW MORE DEGREES TO GO WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE
COLD ENOUGH AND THESE HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL GRADUALLY RESULT IN INCREASING WARMTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTY. THIS WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO BIG WINTER STORMS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...PFANNKUCH 
PREV DISCUSSION...WESELY