FXUS63 KFGF 150919
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
319 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS
MORNING AND THEN LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON CLOUD COVER. MODELS ALL SHOW
THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN AND WILL UTILIZE A BLEND.

ENTIRE FA NOW CLEAR WITH WINDS NEAR 10-20 MPH. WEAK 925MB COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND THINK FORECASTED MIN TEMPS IN THE BALL
PARK FOR THIS MORNING (EVEN THOUGH SFC WINDS APPEAR TO BE HOLDING
TEMPS WARMER RIGHT NOW). CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN GOOD
SHAPE.

CENTER OF SFC HIGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH OF THE FA TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE FA. THIS MAKES MAX TEMP
FORECAST TRICKY...AS WEAK MIXING WILL BATTLE FULL SOLAR. AIRMASS
IS COOLER (AT LEAST LOOKING AT 925MB TEMPS) COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT TEMPERATURE VALUES WE START
OUT WITH THIS MORNING. IF WE DO NOT GET AS COLD AS EXPECTED BY
MORNING THEN THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMP MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED. MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TRICKY AS WELL. MUCH OF THE
FA WILL LIKELY BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK DROP OFF
BEFORE TEMPS BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. HOW MUCH TEMPS DROP
INITIALLY ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND WENT WITH THE BEST EDUCATED
GUESS. SHOULD BE COLDEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA WHERE CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE LAST.

TWO WEAK WAVES WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN FA.
ONE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THE SECOND ONE WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT. DID
INCREASE POPS TO 30 PERCENT WHERE MODELS ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT.
THE SECOND WAVE APPEARS TO TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE FIRST WAVE.
SNOW AMTS UP TO AN INCH WITH EACH WAVE.

DEGREE OF WARM-UP WED INTO THUR HARD TO DETERMINE. AIRMASS IS
DEFINITELY WARMER. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL LIKELY DEPEND UPON HOW
MUCH TEMPS RISE TUE NIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SOLAR BETWEEN THE TWO WEAK SYSTEMS ON
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A MAX TEMP AROUND 10F...WHICH
IS REASONABLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES IF
THINGS WORK OUT JUST RIGHT. GIVEN APPROACHING SYSTEM/CLOUD COVER
FOR WED NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A DROP OFF IN TEMPS. THIS SETS
THE STAGE FOR MAX TEMPS ON THUR TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN WED WITH
MOST OTHER VARIABLES SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NW FLOW ALOFT.
DETAILS STILL COMING TOGETHER...AND SEE NO REASON FOR ANY FORECAST
CHANGES. 

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ002-003-006-009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-
     008.

&&

$$
TG