FXUS62 KMFL 150316
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1016 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST THIS
EVENING...WITH ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEARING TO BE ON TRACK AT
THIS TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC LATER
TONIGHT...AND AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST...BUT
THIS IS ALREADY COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...BUT WILL LEAVE
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT AT THIS TIME.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH ERLY WINDS THIS PERIOD. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND COULD ALLOW LAND BREEZE TO FORM ON
E CST LATE TONIGHT...WITH WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT NWRLY DIRECTION
PSBLY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AND GENERATING A FEW SHRA. LIGHT NE
WINDS AT KAPF COULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG THERE LATE. WINDS BECOME ESE
ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW AROUND 10KTS...WITH AN AFTN
SEA BREEZE PSBL AT KAPF.
/STRASSBERG
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THERE IS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS THAT IS PASSING NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND WILL PASS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE...IT WAS NOT
REFLECTED IN THE 6 OR 12 HOUR POP GUIDANCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
INTRODUCED FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS PROPAGATES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
CLOUD BAND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS IT
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
GUIDANCE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO INDICATE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS BEFORE INTRODUCING IT INTO THE FORECAST. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...WITH FUTURE GUIDANCE.
MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY. LATER ON WEDNESDAY NNE WINDS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
NNE WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATING THAT 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION...AND
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE 15 TO 20 KNOT SOLUTION. WHILE IT IS IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...GULF STREAM SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 7
FEET BY THURSDAY WITH LOCAL GULF WATERS TO NEAR 4 FEET POSSIBLE. N
TO NNE LONG PERIOD SWELL ALSO FORECAST TO ENTER ATLANTIC WATERS ON
THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 68 82 / 20 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 84 72 83 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 73 84 72 84 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 67 83 67 82 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
