FXUS65 KPUB 271133
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
433 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
QUITE WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. H7 TEMPS WARM AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO RISE TODAY. IN FACT...READINGS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...TO AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE OF YESTERDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. BASED ON READINGS
YESTERDAY...THIS WOULD YIELD READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUS HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW THE RECORD MAXES FOR TODAY (78
IN 1998 FOR PUB...72 IN 1998 FOR COS...58 IN 1980 FOR ALS)
WINDS TODAY SHOULD STAY RATHER LIGHT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH
COULDN'T RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE HIGHER
PEAKS. TONIGHT...SHOULD START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. LEE
TROF KICKS EASTWARD ALLOWING A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE TO DROP THROUGH
THE PLAINS TONIGHT. NOT REALLY ALL THAT COOL BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
INITIALLY...AND IF ANYTHING IT WILL JUST KEEP LOWER ELEVATIONS MORE
MIXED...HENCE WARMER. ALTHOUGH WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND NOT MUCH
CLOUD COVER...COULD SEE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES/I-25
CORRIDOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DISTRICT WIDE
AND A GENERALLY NICE DAY. -KT
.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
...SNOW LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIALLY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATE NEXT WEEK...
TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SATURDAY
WILL BEGIN NICE BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT WITH DECENT WARMING EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS BREAK SNOW OUT OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WIT THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH 18Z TO 00Z WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. 700
MB TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND -10C. SNOW
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
NORTHERN TROUGH PHASES WITH ENERGY FROM THE LOW IN NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGES WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALLS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW FOR HIGHLIGHTS AS
THE CURRENT TRACK OF BOTH FEATURES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
OVER THE REGION. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NORTHERN TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTS BY TO THE SOUTH. UPPER RIDGE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
LOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
HEADING INTO MID WEEK. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER SO HAVE IGNORED ITS
SOLUTION WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND NO ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST ENSEMBLE SUPPORT OF
THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND INTO COLORADO LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
00Z ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...HOWEVER A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THE
FURTHER EAST TRACK KEEPS THE COLDEST AIR OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD IN SOUTHERN COLORADO
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION BRINGS THE TROUGH MUCH
FURTHER WEST WITH THE COLDEST AIR DROPPING RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE
TRACK OF THE TROUGH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE JUST HOW COLD WE
WILL GET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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