FXUS61 KAKQ 252101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT OVERRUNNING RAINS MOVING ACRS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN. QPF
AMTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE AND THIS
CUD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH ADDITION OF
ANY SNOWMELT. ISOLD THUNDER OCCURING OVER EASTERN NC ALONG THE
WARM FRONT AND MAY SEE A FEW LTG STRIKES OVR NE NC/SE VA THIS EVE.
PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE AS DRY SLOT MOVES ACRS THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP AS LOW LEVEL WAA SURGES OVE THE AREA TNGT.
LOWS TNGT RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. FOG CUD ALSO BE A PROBLEM TNGT ESPECIALLY WHERE WARM AIR
OVERRIDES SNOWPACK. HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG FOR NOW AND WILL
MONITOR THIS EVE FOR ANY DENSE FOG ISSUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SAT...KEPT MORN POPS ALONG THE ERN SHORE FOR NOW BUT LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDCATE A QUICKER ENDING TO PCPN. A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW
LEVEL MSTR...AND WITH WEAK DEC SUN ANGLE AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...WILL KEEP SKIES MSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS SOUTH AND THIS MAY REACH UP INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHERN/CNTRL VA BY MID/LATER AFTN. MILD WITH TMPS IN THE U40S NW
TO L60S SE.

SUN...DRY AND MILD. LOWS U20S-M30S. HIGHS U40S-M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED/DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SLOWLY EJECTS NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND TO START THE LAST WEEK OF 2009...USHERING IN
DRIER/COOLER WX INTO THE REGION. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LTR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE UPR LOW...AND CONTINUED
GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS W/BENIGN WX EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

MAJOR FORECAST FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED IS WITH MIDLVL LOW PRESSURE 
COMING ASHORE ALONG SO CAL/BAJA MONDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE SW CONUS 
TUE/WED. THIS COULD POSE A WINTER WX THREAT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
NEW YEARS EVE/DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS EVE WITH
LIFR/IFR OVRNGT. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT EARLY SATURDAY UNTIL COLD
FRONT PUSHES THRU AND SCOURS OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SAT NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ALTHO
IT APPEARS AS THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL GALE GIVEN THE LIMITED
MIXING OVER THE COLD WATER SFC. ELSEWHERE SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THRU THE WEEKEND. A
SECONDARY COLD SURGE WILL BRING NEAR OR ABV SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHONE SERVICE AT AKQ CONTS TO BE SPORATIC AT BEST. INTERMITTENT
OUTAGES WILL CONTINUE FOR NOAA HAZARDS/WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS
OPERATING OUT OF AKQ. RIC NWR TRANSMITTING ON MICROWAVE AND AVAILABLE
ONLINE. IN ADDITION...KAKQ 88D PRODUCTS NOT BEING TRANSMITTED.
RETURN TO SERVICE TIME FOR THESE PRODUCTS ARE UNKNOWN. PNS'S HAS
BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...