FXUS63 KIND 270422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1122 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TAFS FOR THIS FORECAST RUN. MVFR CEILINGS 
ACROSS INDIANA...ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT 
ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON 
FRIDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A NEGATIVE CU RULE WITH CCL/S NEAR 
2000 FT SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT 
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY 
MORNING. 

CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS 
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO A RETURN TO VFR 
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UPDATE...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN 
OR DRIZZLE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL 
INDIANA. A FEW REPORTS OF BRIEF SNOW HAVE COME IN FROM SCATTERED 
LOCATIONS BUT NOTHING HAS ACCUMULATED AND NO ACCUMULATION IS 
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THAN 
FORECAST HAVE ADDED SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE 
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 3-6Z. TRENDS 
STILL INDICATE THAT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 6Z 
SO HAVE KEPT THE 6-12Z TIMEFRAME DRY. INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH 6Z 
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT EXPECT SCATTERING TO OCCUR AGAIN IN 
THE 6-12Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION 
THE FIRST PERIOD. DURING MID AFTERNOON A TV MET AND WX OBSERVER 
REPORTED SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. LOOKING AT PROJECTED SOUNDINGS 
THEY HAVE WELL BELOW 0 TEMPS ALOFT AND ONLY GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
FROM 1500 ON DOWN. THIS WOULD GIVE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. BUFKIT 
HAS JUST RAIN SO WILL NOT USE THAT. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN 
ACCUM AND DUE TO WARM SURFACE NO SNOW. WITH THE SPEED THE COLD FRONT 
IS MOVING THROUGH WILL ONLY INCLUDE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION 
IN THE FAR EAST DURING THE EVENING. BOTH MODEL TEMPS AT 18Z VERY 
CLOSE TO ACTUAL CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE IF ANY DIFFERENCE IN MODEL 
TEMPS THROUGH 24 HOURS SO WILL GO WITH THEM. SOME DIFFERENCE IN 
MODELS WITH MOVING OUT THE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE NAM IS A 
LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE THEN THE GFS. BACK EDGE ON SATELLITE PICTURES 
NOT SHOWING MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DUE TO THIS WENT WITH THE SLOWER 
GFS WITH MOVING OUT THE CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY INDIANA REMAINS UNDER A 
FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. 
MODEL TEMPS LOOK OK. THE FLOW FROM THE NW WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO 
GIVE SOME CLOUDS. FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE 
GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES TAKE 
PLACE BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. 
GUIDANCE TEMPS CONTINUE TO DIFFER LITTLE. IF THERE IS ANY DIFFERENCE 
WENT TOWARD THE COOLER ONE SINCE GUIDANCE USUALLY A LITTLE QUICK 
WITH WARM UPS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
QUICKLY TO THE EAST. SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WI 
TO EASTERN KS. THIS WILL BRING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO INDIANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BRING RAIN INTO WEST DURING 
THE MORNING THEN EXTEND IT INTO THE REST OF THE STATE DURING THE 
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WENT FOR LOWER THEN GUIDANCE TEMPS. THERE WILL 
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE THE CHC INTO MONDAY. 

FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AFTER THAT. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF RAIN 
ON WEDNESAY ENDING IT ON THURSDAY.  

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WESTERLY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

UPDATE...CP
PUBLIC...SH
AVIATION...JP