FXUS61 KILN 230005
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
705 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
STRONG SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS SNOW CONTINUING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALL PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST AND SHOULD END THIS EVENING. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS. CLEARING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD FILL IN WITH
CLOUDS AGAIN DURING THE EVENING RESULTING IN GENERALLY OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
DUE TO FORECAST CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP REPLENISHING DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. COMBINED WITH A RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WELL INTO THURSDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE
COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. FELT
IT ONLY WARRANTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER IF ANYTHING DOES
FALL AND REACH THE GROUND IT COULD BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT
SNOW.
OTHERWISE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL
ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD FOR ALL OF THIS TO FALL AS
RAIN.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHERE THERE WERE DIFFERENCES...GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS
WARMER LOWS AND COOLER HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ENERGY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY
WHEN THE LOW IS PROGGED TO FINALLY EJECT EASTWARD. BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS BRING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. IN A PATTERN CONSISTING MAINLY OF COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS IN THE
20S AND 30S CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL DISTURBANCE PULLING AWAY FROM AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW
SHORT LIVED MID LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING AREA FOR THURS/FRI. ALTHOUGH RIDGING TO DOMINATE FOR
TAF PERIOD...BOTH RUC AND NAM HOLDING ON TO LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP LOW LAYERS VERY MOIST IN
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST FOR ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK OVERNIGHT...WHERE SOME LIFTING OF
CEILINGS EXPECTED. MVFR VSBYS ALSO WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. SOME
LIFTING OF CIGS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JDR
