FXUS61 KILN 291753
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1253 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST.
RIDGING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PICKING UP. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP IN THE 25 MPH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR...IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH THE
FORECAST...WITH ONLY THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA SEEING DECENT
PRECIP CHANCES BEFORE THE SUN SETS.

HIGH TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER IN SOME SPOTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FNT PUSHES QUICKLY ACRS THE FA TNGT. 00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PUSHING THE FNT THRU FA BETWEEN 00-06Z MON. MUCH OF THE PCPN IS
POST FRONTAL HOWEVER...SO THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVERNIGHT. UPPED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

MODELS HAVE THE FNT WELL INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MONDAY...SO
ENDED TO CHC OF RAIN FROM NW TO SE TNGT AND MADE MONDAY DRY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THE FLOW OFF THE
LAKES BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC...SO DONT EXPECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ON MONDAY.

H5 S/W SWINGS ACRS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST
AND SHARPEST WITH THIS FEATURE AND PRODUCES QPF THE FARTHEST S. THE
ECMWF/UKMET AND GEM SHOW THIS FEATURE BUT NOT AS STRONG. KEPT THE
20 POPS ACRS THE NRN HALF. THICKNESSES WILL BE LOW ENUF THAT ANY
PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS. NO MAJOR ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR TUES.

GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THRU THE PERIOD...SO DIDNT STRAY
TOO FAR

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN PERIOD WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS. HIGH 
SHIFTS EAST BY WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK 
INTO CWA WED AFTN AND WED NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BROUGHT SURFACE LOW 
CLOSER TO AREA AND THUS MORE QPF IS BEING FCST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL 
RUNS WHICH HAD A MORE EAST COAST SYSTEM. WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT FOR 
NOW. TRANSITION TO CAA APPEARS CERTAIN BEHIND SYSTEM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT HOW FAST AND IF ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE IS BIG QUESTION MARK. SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT ACCUM IF MODEL FCST IS ACCURATE. WILL GO
WITH A CHANGE OVER FOR NOW AND KEEP CHC POPS GOING INTO THURSDAY
WITH CAA AND PROBABLY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE LOWERED
PREVIOUS FCST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY BASED ON NEW MODELS. MAY SEE
TEMPS FALL DURING THE DAY INSTEAD OF RISE BUT WILL LET LATER FCST
HANDLE THE DETAILS. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY BUT WILL ONLY GO SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE
CERTAIN. TEMPS AGAIN AT OR BELOW GUID WITH COLDEST AIR IN PLACE.
NEW MODELS SHOWING NEXT SYSTEM BY SATURDAY BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE
FURTHER MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE INSERTING ANY PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS OF THIS
WRITING...WITH LOW VFR CLOUDS BEGINNING TO GET CLOSE AS WELL.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN
SHOWERS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE WORST OF
IT IN A PERIOD FROM ROUGHLY 03Z-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST. NOT LOOKING
AT TERRIBLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT ENOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE TO
IMPACT THE TAFS. FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
TO BE CEILING- BASED...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME GROUPS IN THE LOW
RANGE OF MVFR. A PERIOD OF IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
THIS CAN BE REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS.

TOWARD MORNING TOMORROW...LOOKING FOR THINGS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER
OUT AS THE MOISTURE WORKS EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS