FXUS61 KCAR 270302
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1002 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TRACK NEAR
THE COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL MAINE. CURRENT WEBCAMS IN
ZONES ONE THROUGH TEN INDICATE AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND NORTHERN
ASOS LOCATIONS INDICATE HALF MILE OR LOWER VISIBILITY. HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z TO MENTION THE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW INVERSION KEEPING SKIES
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE
GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
MAINE FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
AND GUSTY WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL COULD BE SEEN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERN
AREAS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EVEN THE NAM SUGGEST THIS TO BE THE
CASE AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND PULLS
COLDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS JUST STARTED ARRIVING AND SUGGESTS THE
SAME IDEA.

THEREFORE...TOOK THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF FOR THE POPS AND THEN
ADJUSTED THEM PER THE MASS FIELDS AND BEST FORCING WHICH IS BACK
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. SO...WE HAVE CATEGORICAL(90-100%)
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN WIND THEM DOWN AS THINGS
PROGRESS SATURDAY W/THE LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADIAN. DECIDED TO USE
A GMOS/NAM BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND THEN LEANED W/THE GMOS. THIS SETUP SHOWS TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN GOING TO
SNOW AND THEN ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY. FURTHER EAST...THINKING HERE
IS THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR A COLD RAIN
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
THE MARITIMES. LOOKS LIKE JUST RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. DECIDED TO USE THE CAR SNOW TOOL FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS WHICH SHOW 4-5 INCHES FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AN INCH FOR NORTHEASTERN AREAS. 

STRONG PRES GRADIENT FROM INTENSIFYING LOW AND CAA COULD LEAD TO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTH AND WEST. COORDINATED W/GYX AND HPC...AND THE DECISION
HERE WAS TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDER SOLUTIONS...THEN HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE 
CONSIDERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA 
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP CREEPING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE 
CWA. THIS PARTICULAR STORM AT THE MOMENT SHOULD BE A WEAK LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. 
MONDAY THE LOW SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR 
SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE 
DOWNEAST AREAS. THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO HANG ON FOR TUESDAY AND CANNOT 
RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER STILL LINGERING AROUND BEHIND THE 
LOW. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A CLOUDY QUIET DAY. THEN THURSDAY WE WILL 
BE WATCHING POSSIBLY ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGIN TO 
WORK ITS WAY UP THE COAST...WITH THAT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE 
SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST ARES OF THE CWA. USED GMOS TEMPERATURES FOR 
THE PERIOD AND ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM TIME TO TIME EARLY THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE IFR/MVFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/SOME
TURBULENCE TO BOOT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR KBGR AND KBHB BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MVFR LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND
THEN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THUS AN SCA HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR GALES IS THERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SETS UP W/CAA ARRIVING OVER THE WATERS. TOOK A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH SHOW 30-35
KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. GUSTS COULD VERY WELL HIT 40 KTS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WNAWAVE LOOKS TO BE MATCHING UP AND LEANED W/THIS
GUIDANCE FOR THE WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUDA
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...DOODY/DUDA
MARINE...DOODY/DUDA/HEWITT