FXUS63 KICT 292337
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
537 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN KS AS MOST OF THE
PLAINS REMAIN IN THE SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND THE MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW US. DO EXPECT THIS
CIRRUS SHIELD TO GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES IN MOST LOCATIONS AFTER
06Z/MON....AS SHORTWAVE FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VFR/SKC
CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO MON.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
TONIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS WILL FILL IN AND
ERODE THE CLOUDS FROM A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FASHION. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO ERODE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER. THE NORTH
WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND BACK A
BIT TO PREVAIL FROM A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MORNING.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
PUSH SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTH OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE
SFC-850MB WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AS A
RESULT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET...BUT WE DID RAISE
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE
SOME CIRRUS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A JET STREAK DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROF
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SINCE THE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL BE IN PLACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
THE MODELS ARE STILL PROJECTING THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF/COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS LIKE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE DEEPER COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP OFF
MUCH OVERNIGHT SINCE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT
WILL MIX DOWN. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE POURING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY:
OUR CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLES GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO TREND BACK TO THE WEST
WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS
AND THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. MORE INTERESTING
THINGS OF NOTE IS THAT THE GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING ANOMALOUS
JET ENERGY DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE POLAR TROF WHICH WILL
HELP ENHANCE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SUBTROPICAL
JET WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP
SCOUR OUT THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD OPEN
THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE AREA. WE HAVE
DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME OVER THE AREA...BUT WE MAY END UP
DROPPING TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE SINCE THIS AIR MASS MAY FALL INTO
THE LOWER 10-14 PERCENT CATEGORY OF A 60 YEAR CLIMATE DATABASE.
WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO BE BROKE AT THIS TIME...BUT HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF BUILDS EAST. HOWEVER...OUR CONFIDENCE REALLY DETERIORATES
BEYOND THIS PERIOD...SINCE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF/RIDGES. WE FOLLOWED MAINLY THE
HPC SOLUTION FOR NOW AND WENT CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY ON TEMPERATURES
AND KEPT THINGS DRY.
CWH/COX
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 27 58 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 26 59 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 27 58 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 27 58 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 28 58 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 24 60 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 24 60 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 26 59 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 26 59 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 31 57 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 30 57 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 30 57 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 30 57 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
