FXUS63 KILX 251143
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
543 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 327 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
SFC LOW OVER COLUMBIA MO THIS MORNING AND HEADED NORTH AS UPPER
TROF MAINTAINS A NEGATIVE TILT. DEEP SFC LOW HAS OCCLUDED AND
REGION CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE CROSS OVER TO SNOW IN THE LATE
MORNING TO THE SW...AND THEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
NORTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST IS GOING QUITE
WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM AFTER A ROCKY BEGINNING AND THE MODELS ARE
STILL HANDLING IT RATHER WELL. HOLIDAY TRAVEL WILL BE WET AND
WINDY TODAY...AND MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE HOW LONG OF A DRY SLOT CAN
WE GET OVER THE REGION BEFORE THE SNOW KICKS IN...AND WILL THAT
SFC RUNOFF FREEZE...MAKING TRAVEL EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WET AND BLUSTERY AGAIN TODAY...WINDS TO 20 KTS AND GUSTING TO 30. FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING AS RIVERS COME UP...AND WATER
OVER ROADWAYS WILL STILL BE A THREAT IN THE EARLY MORNING AS
PLENTY OF RAIN IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE
DRY SLOT THAT IS SHOWING...SW OF LSX. TEMPERATURES DROPPING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND THE PRECIP BEGINS TO
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW. CWA SHOULD BECOME SNOW DOMINATED BY THE
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH AT THIS POINT THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIP
WILL HAVE SUBSIDED...RATHER CONSISTENT SNOWFALL FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN UP TO AN INCH FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND UP TO 2 WITH LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 74...THOUGH IT WILL BE OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DROP CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE FAR MORE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW BECOMES STAGNANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...REMAINING NEAR
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE DUSTING OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH STARTING LIGHT AND ENDING SUNDAY WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES IS ANTICIPATED. LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT LATE SUNDAY
AND WILL SEE A RETURN OF FRIGID TEMPS AS THE HIGHS FOR SUN AND MON
REMAIN IN THE 20S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM ON APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY FROM THE SW...BRINGING MORE
PRECIP QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 530 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OVR NE MISSOURI THIS MRNG WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA...PRODUCING HIGH WINDS...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THIS MRNG...AND MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS INTO THIS EVE.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT NOW PUSHING ACRS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD SHUT
DOWN THE PRECIP...AT LEAST THE STEADIER RAINS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ROTATE ARND THE SFC LOW TO OUR WEST AND PUSH BACK
INTO THE AREA THIS MRNG. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN...THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW LATER THIS MRNG INTO THE
AFTN HOURS...WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY AOB 3SM IN THE LIGHT SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TNT ALONG WITH THE
MVFR CIGS.
WITH THE LOW PULLING NWD AND STAYING TO OUR WEST...WE SHOULD SEE
SOUTH WINDS GRDLY VEER MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 20 TO 30 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS ARND 35 KTS AT
TIMES. WITH THE SFC LOW ONLY GRDLY WEAKENING WITH TIME TNT...
THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF VERY MUCH UNTIL AFTR
03Z...AND THAT WILL ONLY BE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ051.
&&
$$
