FXUS61 KCTP 271910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
210 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT BRINGS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR MID-WEEK. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIXING ALREADY HELPING GUSTS OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL MTS TO GET
UP TO 30KTS THIS AFTN. NIGHTTIME APPCHG FAST AND FLOW NOT
DIRECTIONALLY ALIGNED IN THE VERTICAL. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD
THESE GUSTS ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE OR JUST UP A FEW KTS. GUSTS
COULD GET TO 35-40KTS...ESP OVER THE ERN HILLTOPS...BUT WOULD PREFER
TO NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVSRY FOR SUCH A MARGINAL EVENT. THE SERN COS
COULD ALSO GET GUSTS CLOSE TO 40KT...AS DOWNSLOPE ACCELERATES THE
FLOW AS IT HEADS INTO THE MAIN /OFF-SHORE LOW.

VORT LOBE PUSHING OVER LE ATTM AND WILL ENHANCE THE SHSN OVER THE
NWRN MTS THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE LAURELS MAY
ACTUALLY SEE THE WEAK/SCT SHSN THERE PICK UP LATE THIS EVENING AND
THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...AS UPSLOPE FLOW INTENSIFIES AND
MSTR FROM LH MAY ADD TO THE MIX. WILL HOLD MENTIONS OF SCT/ISOLD
SHSN FOR ALL BUT THE DOWNSLOPING SERN COS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT MAX AND RIDGING PRESSING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL DIMINISH THE SHSN IN THE NW. THE LAURELS MAY HOLD ON
IN THE LAURELS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT UNTIL THE INVERSION MAKES IT
INTO THERE. MINS WON/T MOVE FAR FROM CURRENTS THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
WELL-MIXED BNDRY LYR. 

ANY REMAINING SHSN/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...AS
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO JUST
10MPH W/GUSTS TO 20MPH BY SUNRISE. CLOUDS LINGER IN THE NW UNTIL 9
OR 10 AM. THEN...OTHER THAN THE MID CLOUDS SLIDING ACROSS WITH A
WARM UP ALOFT...LITTLE ELSE WILL BE OF MENTION. WILL PUT HIGHS IN
THE U30S IN THE NRN MTS BUT ALL THE WAY NEAR 50F IN THE FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. BRIEF LAKE EFFECT REGIME ENDS EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...AN
AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REACH THE WEST COAST BY MONDAY...
WITH DOWNSTREAM TROFFING EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MID TO LATE WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF MAY EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...REACHING THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY SPREADING SOME
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE CONDITIOSN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY TYPICAL LATE NOV PATTERN WITH MVFR CLDS IN JST/BFD WITH
OCCASIONAL FORAYS INTO IFR. THE NOTEABLE THING TONIGHT WILL BE THE
VERY GUSTY WNW /290-310/ WINDS. EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
12-19KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT IN THE W BUT CLOSER TO 35 OR EVEN
40KTS IN THE EAST - CLOSER TO KIPT/KSEG/KMDT/KLNS. THE MIXED
NATURE WILL MEAN LOTS OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE BUT NOT LLWS.

VORT MAX MOVES BY THIS EVENING IN THE NW /KBFD/ AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WDSPRD SHSN THERE TO SCT SHSN AFT 05Z. KJST WILL HAVE
A LULL IN HEAVIER SHSN/IFR UNTIL 22-23Z...THEN STAY IFR FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT. HI PRES BUILDS IN DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
SAT AM. THIS SHOULD CUT OFF THE SHSN AND DECREASE THE WINDS SOME.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STAY 10KT WITH G22KT PSBL FOR THE DAYLIGHT
SAT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. 
MON...MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHRA. 
TUE...IFR/MVFR W IN POST FRONTAL SHRA. VFR E.
WED...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
AVIATION...BEACHLER