FXUS65 KABQ 160949
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
245 AM MST WED DEC 16 2009
...FORECAST LOOKING DRY INTO NEXT WEEK...
.DISCUSSION...
SUN WILL FILTER THROUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME ACROSS MOST LOCALES. UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS WILL EVER SO GRADUALLY NUDGE TO THE EAST
WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL KEEP A HIGH AND DRY FORECAST IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT
DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT COLD. WE WILL SEE COOLER READINGS FROM
THURSDAY BUT NOTHING DRASTICALLY COLDER.
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN HOLDING IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
YIELD DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS BUT WE WILL SEE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. EACH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE DUE INTO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY THEN TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A STRONG FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS TO BREAKDOWN TO THE WEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN
SHIFT BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
KW
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO
THE DAY PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THIS SHOULD
MAKE IT HARDER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY AT BOTH GUP AND FMN SO WILL MONITOR
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL AFFECT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY PERIOD TODAY. VENTILATION WAS RATHER POOR YESTERDAY
AND THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO MAKE IT MORE SO TODAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN...MOST AREAS...TODAY BUT THE HIGHER CLOUD
COVER WILL MUTE THAT SOMEWHAT. DEWPOINT AND SUBSEQUENT HUMIDITY
FORECASTING WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO VERY
DRY AIR BEING FOUND IN THE MID LEVELS AND SURFACE MIXING
DIFFICULTIES. WINDS TODAY WILL BE THE STRONGEST ALONG THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS AND TUCUMCARI AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT A WEAKER UPPER WAVE WITH AN ATTACHED WEAKER SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE STATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE UPPER WAVE WILL MAKE MUCH OF A DENT IN THE
POOR VENTILATION HOWEVER. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY MOST
AREAS WITH SOME GUSTINESS TO THE LEE OF THE JEMEZ...SAN MATEO AND
SANDIA MOUNTAINS PER HISTORICAL RESULTS UNDER THESE TYPES OF
CONDITIONS.
IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE REINFORCING
STRENGTH TO THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE GUSTY
WIND FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
CONTINUED POOR VENTILATION MOST AREAS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL TREND UP
ACCORDINGLY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO LESS OF A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW EVEN MORE INLINE WITH THE WEEKEND
FORECAST. BOTH MODELS SHOW A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK
PERTURBATION OR TWO CAUGHT WITHIN THIS FLOW. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOLLOW EACH PERTURBATION...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED POOR VENTILATION MOST AREAS.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING
SURFACE HIGH PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS BREAK DOWN IN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN EACH OTHER AFTER THAT.
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
THE BOTTOMLINE...DRIER CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
...WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VERY LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
IN VENTILATION IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 43 16 43 18 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 44 10 43 9 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 44 12 43 15 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 46 15 48 15 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 47 17 48 18 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 46 15 50 19 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 48 18 51 19 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 56 28 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 41 6 41 7 / 0 5 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 19 45 19 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 50 20 49 20 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 6 44 11 / 0 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 43 16 42 14 / 0 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 15 44 15 / 0 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 45 12 46 13 / 0 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 51 19 50 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 45 21 46 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 21 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 24 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 27 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 24 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 27 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 24 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 27 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 54 27 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 24 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 49 20 50 20 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 25 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 52 24 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 27 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 30 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 52 25 48 21 / 0 0 5 5
RATON........................... 53 19 52 19 / 0 0 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 25 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 58 29 54 29 / 0 0 5 5
ROY............................. 55 28 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 59 28 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 30 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 28 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 60 31 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 61 29 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 60 27 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 60 30 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 63 30 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 59 29 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
17/50
