FXUS66 KLOX 091638
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
840 AM PST WED DEC 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY...SNOW LEVEL ABOVE 5500
FEET. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECASTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO CONNECT WITH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...OVERALL...ANOTHER VERY COOL MORNING ACROSS
THE DISTRICT...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. ALL FROST/FREEZE
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED OR CANCELLED FOR THE DAY.
FORECAST WISE...THE CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK. QUICK LOOK AT
12Z MODELS SHOWS AN EXTENDED WET PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE AREA. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN TWO
WAVES. THE FIRST WAVE ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN TO SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THE SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO VTU/LAX
COUNTIES. WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND
1.00 INCH IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 6000 FEET.
A SECOND...MORE SIGNIFICANT...SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. PER 12Z MODELS...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE POTENT WITH
GOOD SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WOULD HELP PRODUCE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL PROVIDE MORE DETAILS WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
THE LONG RANGE MDLS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. RAIN WILL AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GFS
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE RAIN THAN THE NAM SO THE MORNING
MAY BE RAIN FREE. THIS STORM HAS SEVERAL VORT LOBES WITH IT AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THIS STORM ARE AROUND AN INCH
COAST AND VLYS AND ONE AND HALF TO TWO AND HALF IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE NOT BEEN PREFORMING WELL WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LATELY SO WOULD NOT BUT A LOT OF STOCK IN THE THESE NUMBERS.
THIS STORM HAS A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY WITH IT AND WHILE SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 6000 FEET THEY WILL LIKELY LOWER SUNDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR.
THE STORM SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A LITTLE
RIDGE POPS UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOULD ALL FOR A COUPLE OF DRY
DAYS WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARDS BUT NOT TOO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...09/1200Z.
CAVU THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR KSMX AND KSBP.
KLAX AND KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE CAVU TAF.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...ASR
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
