FXUS64 KFWD 260539 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
CONTINUED VFR THROUGHOUT CURRENT TAFS. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST...USHERING IN LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. CIRRUS WILL CLUTTER THE SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND.
25
&&
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS...AND
WINDS BEHIND IT ARE PICKING UP TO 5 TO 10 MPH. INTERESTINGLY...THE
FRONT IS VISIBLE ON THE IR SATELLITE LOOP AS A SUBTLE SOUTHWARD
MOVING BAND OF WARMER TEMPS...AS THE WINDS PICK UP JUST ENOUGH TO
MIX DOWN WARMER AIR ALOFT AND UNDO SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. THE FRONT AND THE LIGHT WINDS BEHIND IT
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...BUT WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
GRIDS.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AS WIND SPEED
NORTH OF I-20 HAVE INCREASED. THE REINFORCING COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING...PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AND A VERY
PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY.
AN UPPER LOW OVER IS LOCATED OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HANGING DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND WILL SHEAR APART WITH SOME ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A LARGER PIECE OF
ENERGY DROPS DOWN INTO CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIFFER ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS TO THIS SYSTEM FROM THIS POINT
ON. GFS KEEPS IT CLOSED AND SWINGS IT THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THEN ACROSS TEXAS FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CLOSED THE LOW
OFF BRIEFLY OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA THEN TRANSPORTS A SHARP...POSITIVE
TILTED TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS. THE DIFFERENCES WILL DETERMINED THE AMOUNT
OF ENERGY/LIFT AVAILABLE...AND AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND ALSO THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE/VE
DECIDED TO USE THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS
A QUICKER PRECIPITATION EVENT AND DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS AND FORECAST CHANGES FOR NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST AREAS.
AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE
RAIN WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. QPF OF 1/4 INCH IN THE
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 40 66 40 71 49 / 0 0 0 0 5
WACO, TX 39 65 42 68 48 / 0 0 0 0 10
PARIS, TX 34 60 36 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 5
DENTON, TX 34 64 36 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 34 63 35 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 5
DALLAS, TX 40 66 43 71 49 / 0 0 0 0 5
TERRELL, TX 38 64 38 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 41 64 40 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 10
TEMPLE, TX 37 66 43 69 49 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/92
