FXUS63 KLSX 100950
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/332 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009/
FCST FOCUS WILL BE TEMPS THE NEXT THREE DAYS THEN POPS ON SAT NGT. 

TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UNTIL THE SFC MOVES OFF TO THE E LATE
IN THE DAY FRI. TEMPS SHUD REMAIN STEADY FRI NGT AFTER REACHING
THE MIN BY MIDNIGHT SAT. HAVE TRENDED FCST TWD THE COOLER MOS TDA
AND FRI...BEFORE SLY FLOW HELPS TEMPS REACH TH 40S ON SAT. 

THE SLY FLOW WILL HELP DWPTS REBOUND WITH LLJ BRINGING ENUF MSTR
NWD BY SAT THAT THERE IS A SLGT CHC OF MEASURABLE PRECIP FRI NGT
INTO SAT. HAVE RATHER LOW POPS FOR NOW AS MDLS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEPICT MORE OF A DZ EVENT THAN ACTUAL RA. KEPT SILENT 20 POPS
GOING FOR SUN NGT AND INTO MON AS A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES THE
REGION. MDLS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR PRECIP CHCS. MDLS ALSO
DIFFER REGARDING TIMING...BUT TRENDED TWD A ECMWF/GEM BLEND. CAN
NOT JUSTIFY REMOVING SILENT POPS AND WILL LEAVE AS IS. 

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES WERE MADE FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. 

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1029 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...W-NWLY SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN SPEED THRU THE LATE NIGHT AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA RELAXES DUE TO THE DEEP SFC LOW JUST NE OF MI
MOVING FURTHER NE OF THE AREA AND THE SFC RDG ACROSS THE PLAINS
BUILDING SEWD INTO MO. THE SFC WNDS MAY PICK UP SLIGHTLY IN SPEED
AGAIN BY LATE MRNG BUT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TDA...AROUND 27014G24KT. THE SFC WNDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THU
NGT AND BACK AROUND TO A SWLY DIRECTION WITH THE SFC HI CENTERED
JUST S OF THE CWA AT 00Z FRI. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS...2500 FT
SHOULD ADVECT E OF STL/SUS BY 06Z THU...WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED
AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX