FXUS62 KMHX 230145
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
845 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY DRAGGING A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 835 PM TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING HAVE LED TO EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING RAPIDLY BELOW
FREEZING. EXPECT COLD LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS/MIDDLE-
UPPER 20S. ALONG THE COAST WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE LIGHTER THAN
PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCURRING AT SOME
OF THE BEACHES AS WELL. WILL MONITOR OCRACOKE FOR POSSIBLE FREEZE
WARNING. WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE BUT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 40. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY OPAQUE TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE NAM12 IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH
THE PRECIP. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURRING BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AND 04Z
SATURDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. QPF COULD EXCEED 1 INCH IN SPOTS AND WILL BE 1/2 TO
3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE GFS DOES SHOW A
RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE
THE NAM DOES NOT. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER...BUT WILL MONITOR.

FOR TEMPS...WILL SEE SLOW MODERATION WEDS WITH MOST AREAS INTO THE
LOWER 50S ON WEDS. WITH WEAK WAA...NOT AS COOL WEDS NIGHT WITH ALL
LOCALES IN THE 30S. A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY
HOLD MANY MAXES IN THE UPPER 40S. AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE SMALL POPS/QPF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER A MILD DAY
SATURDAY WITH MAXES INTO THE LOWER 60S...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NEXT THREAT OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH
NEXT IN THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 835 PM TUESDAY...VFR WITH SKC CONTINUES THIS AFTN AND
EXPECTED TO RULE THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRES AND LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR CROSS OVER TEMPS TO
BE REACHED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW FOG/STREAM FOG FORMATION
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT SITES KEWN/KPGV WHERE MVFR FORECASTS
WILL BE CONTINUED. 

VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE WITH HIGH PRES. MODEL 
TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING THRU WED 
AND THU AROUND AN ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN ALONG WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BY 
EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ASSOCIATED LOWER 
FLIGHT RULES ALSO PSBL AS THIS OCCURS. ALSO EXPECTING STRONG E TO SE 
WINDS TO PICK UP ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN 
HIGH PRES TO OUR NE AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE 
STATE FROM THE SW. CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON SATURDAY 
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF WLY 
WINDS ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY 
BY 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SEAS BE MAINLY LESS THAN 4FT. IT 
LOOKS LIKE DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF 
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGES IN FROM THE NW...LEAVING N WINDS 
AOB 15KT AND SEAS AOB 4FT. THE HIGH GETS REINFORCED WED NIGHT INTO 
THU WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN N TO NE WINDS TO 15-20KT FOR THE 
COASTAL WATERS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SOUNDS. PRES GRADIENT STILL 
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS STRONG HIGH PRES N/NE OF 
AREA INTERACTS WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM/LOW PRES APPROACHING 
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE FROM THE SW. HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOLID SMALL CRAFT
TO NEAR GALE SE WINDS FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE W INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH INITIAL FROPA AND COME
DOWN BELOW SCA LEVELS. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE 10-20 KT WLY WINDS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SMALL CRAFT W
WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH AS THE HIGH GETS REINFORCED FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WE HAVE ONLY SHOWN A MODEST INCREASE IN WLY WINDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

SWAN SEEMS TO BE DOING FINE BASED ON CURRENT WAVE OBS...AND HAVE 
USED ITS SOLUTION ALMOST VERBATIM THROUGH 48HRS. WILL NEED TO WATCH 
FOR SCA RANGE SEAS DEVELOPING FOR OUR NRN WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY 
MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH BUT FOR NOW 
HAVE CAPPED AT 5FT. CONDS SHOULD EASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATER THU AS 
THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH...BUT STILL EXPECTING SHORT PERIOD SE WAVE 
SYSTEM TO RAMP UP QUICKLY FRI AND FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT. BASED ON 
ABOVE REASONING HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO 10-12 FT ACROSS OUTER PORTION 
OF ESP CENTRAL WATERS FRI NIGHT. SE BECOMING S WIND WAVES COME DOWN 
STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT GET REPLACED BY A MIX OF SHORT 
PERIOD W WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD E/NE SWELL FROM LOW PRES EAST OF 
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SMALL CRAFT RANGE 
SEAS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...ESP WATERS NORTH OF 
OCRACOKE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JME/MW
MARINE...MW/BM