FXUS61 KCLE 281711
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1211 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL BUILD
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE LATE SUNDAY
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SLOW TO
RISE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING HIGH TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S...WITH
UPPER 40S OUT WEST AND LOWER 40S ACROSS INTERIOR NW PA. CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY SLOW CLEARING. GUIDANCE HAS CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT ABOUT
19-22Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN EARLIER SUNSETS THIS TIME OF YEAR
SKIES WILL CLEARING OVER INTERIOR NW PA RIGHT AROUND SUNSET.
SHOWED DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS BUT FOR ZONES SIMPLY
MENTIONED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE
NAM NOTICEABLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE CAROLINAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY.
NAM FASTER WITH THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BUT WILL TREND
TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AS OF LATE.
THIS MEANS THAT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON PRECIP MENTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIKELY
WORDING SUNDAY NIGHT BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
TENTH OR TWO. THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. 850
MB TEMPS SHOULD DIP TO AROUND NEG 8 ON MONDAY WITH WITH A WNW FLOW
LIKELY LEADING TO SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ENOUGH RIDGING OCCURS TO SWITCH
THE WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY FOR MIXED
PRECIP BUT MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. WILL TRY FOR DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. MAY HAVE
GONE A LITTLE WARM FOR THE SNOWBELT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
DON'T WANT TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GULF COAST 
STATES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE 
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO 
WHICH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS LOW WILL TRACK AT THIS TIME. THE 
TRACK WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR 
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. AT THIS POINT HAVE TRENDED WITH THE 
FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE ECMWF. IN ANY EVENT IT WILL BE COOLER IN 
THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM BY FRIDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS 
DEVELOPING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

IF THE WESTERN TRACK DOES MATERIALIZE THEN SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE 
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER 
AND ANY RAINFALL WILL LIMIT HIGHS BUT AT LEAST THE REGION WILL BE 
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SC LAYER STILL REMAINS OVER NW PA BUT
SHOULD MOVE EAST BY 20Z. WINDS S-SW WEST AND FAIRLY LIGHT THIS
EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LATE NIGHT IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA BUT WIND FLOW
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE BY 12Z. I WILL HINT AT
SOME IFR/MVFR VSBYS TOWARDS 09Z SUN HOWEVER I WILL NOT PRESS IFR 
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. SOME HIGH MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE THE
REGION SUN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MOST
OF THE DAY. I WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF ANY PCPN SINCE IT
WILL BE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUE. VFR WILL
RETURN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO NW WINDS CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE AS SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE THAT IS MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE 
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE 
LAKE AS WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES OF 5 TO 7 
FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TO ALLOW THE SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE DOWN. HOWEVER AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE W 
AND NW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LAKE 
ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED AND WILL 
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...MULLEN