FXAK68 PAFC 292348
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE NAM IS STILL PREFERRED IN THE EAST DUE TO ITS HANDLING OF
THE LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. PAST
THAT THERE IS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE
ISSUE AT THIS TIME IS WITH A LOW IN BRISTOL BAY THAT HAS THE LOW
MOVING TOWARD NORTON SOUND ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF BUT WEAKENING AND
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN COOK INLET ON THE GFS SOLUTION. WHILE THEY BOTH
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON THE SOLUTIONS THE GFS SOLUTION
THAT WEAKENS THE LOW AND THEN MOVES IT INTO LOWER COOL INLET MAKES
MORE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY IS A
LARGE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THAT IS BRINGING BLIZZARDS AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THAT REGION. A SMALL LOW IS IN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
MONDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE STRONG LOW IN THE BERING SEA IS BRINGING
NUMEROUS WARNINGS TO THAT REGION. HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS REMAIN IN EFFECT AND SHEMYA HAS VERIFIED
WARNING LEVEL WINDS. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS HAVE THE FRONT ELONGATING
AND STALLING OVER THEM WHICH IS CAUSING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE MOST
SURPRISING DEVELOPMENT IS THE BLIZZARD THAT FORMED IN SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE UNALASKA AREA AND ALASKA PENINSULA. IT IS RARE TO GET A
BLIZZARD WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BUT THIS STORM HAS DONE IT. 

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEMS AS THE ONE IN BRISTOL BAY WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY AND BEFORE
THE NEXT ONE MOVING INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA FROM THE
SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS ALSO SIGNALS A LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN AS A STRING UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES OVER THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE AND THE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE EASTERN PART OF THE
ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181 195.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 185 187 191.
         HIGH WIND WATCH 101 125.
MARINE...STORMS AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BERING SEA AND AK PEN AND
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GALES AROUND THE GULF.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 09