FXUS64 KLIX 240051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
651 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. A VERY MOIST SOUNDING
BELOW 600 MILLIBARS AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH A
PW OF 1.33 INCHES AND AN LI OF -0.8. WINDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND LOTS OF
DIRECTION SHEER WITH WINDS VEERING FROM EAST...SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT JUST 5000 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...
OBVIOUS CONCERNS WILL LIE WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
THU. THE FIRST WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONTAL AXIS LATER
TONIGHT FROM LFT EASTWARD. TS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO A DEEPER MARINE LAYER KEEPING STABILITY IN THE BL.
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH AND THE
STRONG SPLIT FLOW AND WIND SPEEDS AT JET LEVEL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL AXIS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHOW ITSELF BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL SIMPLY GET STRONGER AND
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THU MORNING. THE MAIN SQUALL LINE
WILL COME THROUGH BTR BETWEEN 10-11AM...MCB AROUND 11AM. MSY
AROUND NOON. AND GPT AROUND 2PM. A WIND ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE
NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR GRADIENT WINDS BEFORE THE FRONT EVEN GETS
HERE.

LONG TERM...
SOME COLD AIR WILL SETTLE BEHIND THE FRONT THU AND FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S THROUGH SAT. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WELL INTO THE GULF BY THE WEEKEND AND
ANOTHER STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF MON BRINGING
OUR NEXT WX STARTING TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  65  36  49 / 100 100  20   0 
BTR  61  64  35  50 / 100 100  10   0 
MSY  62  69  42  53 / 100 100  10   0 
GPT  61  68  41  53 /  80 100  30   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF 
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS 
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI 
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF 
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 
     TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF 
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 
     NM. 

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. 

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. 

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF 
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS 
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI 
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF 
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 
     TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF 
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 
     NM. 

&&

$$