FXUS61 KOKX 261542
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST FROM
NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST...TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS
THINNING...AND EVEN SOME BREAKS ACROSS NEW JERSEY. BREAKS EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LITTLE FORCING...SOME ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT...SO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

DESPITE THINNING CLOUDS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STEADY RAINFALL DEVELOPS TONIGHT FROM E TO W...AND CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF...POSSIBLY AS RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC METRO (DUE TO COOLING OF LOW
LEVELS WITH CUT OFF LOW PULLING OVERHEAD AND THEN TO THE
EAST...TOO WARM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY CHANGE OVER
ELSEWHERE). WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE
WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE WINDS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER LONG ISLAND/NYC/COASTAL CT...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE AREA.

RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT AND SKY CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT.
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

FOR TEMPERATURES BASICALLY FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL FRIDAY (LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE FROM TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY)...LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT 
SYSTEM THAT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES 
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY 
EXITS THE AREA.   EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 
40 FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS AROUND BEHIND THE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW.  LOCATIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND FARTHER INLAND 
COULD GET CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK...SO HAVE PUT IN THE 
POSSIBILITY FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS 
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.  

AROUND MID WEEK...NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL PHASE 
TOGETHER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...AND INCREASINGLY DEEPEN AS A 
LARGE SYSTEM...THAT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE 
AREA AROUND THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.  AS COLDER AIR AGAIN ADVECTS 
ACROSS THE AREA...HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND POINTS NORTH COULD SEE 
RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...AND HAVE 
INDICATED THIS IN THE GRIDS. 

HIGHS DURING THE EXTENDED WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50F ON MOST DAYS.  
WILL SEE A LARGER RANGE OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY 
PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE HIGHER/NORTHERN AREAS COULD DIP INTO THE 
UPPER 20S...BUT LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST REMAIN 
CLOSER TO 40F.  EXPECT COLDER LOWS AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS 
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE MORE ALONG THE UPPER 20 TO MID 30 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NC COAST. THE LOW WILL TRACK NWD TODAY 
AND REACH A POINT NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. 

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM 
THE CITY NORTH AND WEST. CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK LATE IN THE 
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS.  EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD EXPECT PLENTY OF 
LOW CLOUDS...MVFR CEILINGS... AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED AT THE 
SURFACE...BUT EVEN THERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE THROUGH 
20Z.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE 
APPROACHES. LGT WINDS WITH A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EVERYWHERE 
THROUGH 00Z.

RAIN FROM THE LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TNGT. BEST CHANCE FOR 
MDT PRECIPITATION AFT 04Z. 

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AFTER 18Z...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT 
AND VARIABLE BUT EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY...350V060 COMPONENT.

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     26/14Z 00000KT
     26/15Z 00000KT
     26/16Z VRB03KT
     26/17Z VRB03KT
     26/18Z VRB03KT
     26/19Z VRB03KT
     26/20Z VRB03KT
     26/21Z 00000KT
     26/22Z 00000KT
     26/23Z VRB03KT
     27/00Z VRB03KT
     27/01Z VRB03KT

KJFK...VARYING MVFR CIGS TO VFR THROUGH 18Z.

KLGA...VARYING MVFR CIGS TO VFR LIKELY THROUGH 18Z.

KTEB...VARYING MVFR CIGS TO VFR THROUGH 18Z.

KHPN...VARYING MVFR CIGS TO VFR THROUGH 18Z.

KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS 
ANTICIPATED. 

KISP...MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SOME BREAKS 15-18Z.

KBDR...VARYING MVFR CIGS TO VFR THROUGH 18Z.

KGON...VARYING MVFR CIGS TO VFR THROUGH 20Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 
FRI...WNW WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35KT AS LOW PRES RAPIDLY DEEPENS
NE OF THE AREA. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE METRO. 
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...REMAINING WINDY. GUSTS UP TO 45KT POSSIBLE.
VFR. 
SUN...WINDS DIMINISH. DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MAY RESULT IN
MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS A LITTLE BELOW FORECAST VALUES AND HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER
SEAS. ALSO REMOVED THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.

WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT...SO HAVE PUT UP A SCA FOR ALL OF
TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS (SEAS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BEFORE THE SCA GUSTS COME IN AFTER MIDNIGHT).

STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE GUSTS TO AT LEAST GALE FORCE OVER ALL
WATERS...AND SUSTAINED GALES LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE AT
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
ASSESS CHANCE AT ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
STORM WATCH. THESE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 9 FT ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES AND UP TO 6-7 FT ON THE SOUND.

WINDS DIMINISH TO SCA LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA.  
HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS AND WAVES TO 
INCREASE ABOVE SCA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM .4 TO 1 INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR
EASTER CT AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NYC METRO. BECAUSE THE
RAINFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER ABOUT 24 HOURS NO SIGNIFICANT
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 3 FT
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
BLOW OUT TIDES AT NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
IF CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL NEED
TO BE ISSUED AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY 
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY 
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$