FXUS63 KPAH 291852
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1252 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...
18Z FRONTAL POSITION RUNS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD/IL-
SPRINGFIELD/MO. NAM TAKES MOISTURE POOL OVER ETX/LA AND LIFTS IT
NWARD TONIGHT. NO MODEL HAS DONE VERY WELL TODAY...BUT THE NAM
PERHAPS CAPTURED THE 'LACK OF' COVERAGE THE BEST...SO WE LEANED
ITS DIRECTION TONIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN LTL/NO EVENT IN OUR NORTH
WITH STILL HIGH (CAT) POPS IN OUR SOUTH. WE'LL MUTE THAT APPROACH
ACCORDINGLY...AS THE COLLAB PIC DICTATES. THE PCPN SHOULD BE OUT
BY 12Z SO NO LINGER INTO MON AM EITHER.
AFTER A BRIEF REPREIVE TUESDAY...THE NEXT EVENT WED-WED NIGHT
STILL HAS ALOT OF QUESTION MARKS. THE NAM IS SLOWER BRINGING IT IN
ON WED AND THE ECMWF APPEARS TO STILL BE HPC/COLLAB APPROACH BY
AND LARGE. THAT'LL MEAN AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW TRACK SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR FA. GFS WANTS TO START PCPN AFT MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT BUT
MOST MODELLING AND RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN FOR A POST 12Z WED
START TIME. SLOWER ECMWF DOES MEAN WE HAVE TO COPE WITH SOME
BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM CHANGE-OVER LATE WED NIGHT...BUT EVEN THEN THE
TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE COLD AIR COMES IN JUST AS THE MAIN
MOISTURE FIELD IS DEPARTING...SO ANY SUCH CHANGE-OVER SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IN BOTH TIME/EFFECT. IT LOOKS BEST FOR THIS TO OCCUR IN THE
NRN/ERN PTNS WHERE THE MOISTURE IS LAST TO DEPART.
AFTER THAT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY. BY DAY
7 THE MODELS FLIRT WITH ANOTHER CHC RAIN BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THEIR IS A COLLAB APPETITE FOR THIS INCLUSION JUST YET...MOSTLY
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP START TIME AND DURATION IN ADDITION TO
INTENSITY. KEEP VFR VSBY THROUGHOUT VALID TIME OF TAFS. BRING CIGS
INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS. PREDOMINANT PRECIP FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z ALL SITES. START
LIFTING CIGS AT KCGI AFTER 6Z THEN APPROACHING 12Z AT KEVV AND KOWB.
CARRY FROPA AROUND 00Z TO 03Z FOR ALL SITES AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
