FXUS63 KIND 051108
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH 
INDIANA. SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY CLOUD 
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SCATTERED CU DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TONIGHT 
THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO 
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT THIS WILL HAVE FOR THIS 
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE 
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE IND TAF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS INDIANA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS FLORIDA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN IS CONTRIBUTING TO ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS...A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS ARE PRODUCING
SNOW SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AND THE SYSTEM MOVING IN
AROUND MID-WEEK.  

FIRST...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO DRY AND
COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
DUE TO THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION COULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO DECIDED TO LEAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THAT
AREA INSTEAD OF A MIX.

TEMPERATURES...MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH TODAY/S HIGHS. GFS
IS TOO WARM...SO LEANED TOWARD THE NAM. TONIGHT...THEY COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. SUNDAY...TRENDED
TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS.  

AFTER MONDAY THINGS GET MORE EXCITING...BUT THAT FAR OUT IT IS TOO 
EARLY TO BE DEFINITIVE. AS MENTIONED ON CHAT...MODELS DO SEEM TO
CONCUR WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP US ABOVE FREEZING
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH ENORMOUS PRESSURE FALLS
PROJECTED...WE MIGHT EVEN HAVE A LITTLE THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDUD 
LONG TERM...KWIATKOWSKI
AVIATION...HAINES