FXUS61 KOKX 042008
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
308 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE
EASTERN SEA BOARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY.  

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS EVIDENT
BY THE WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AS LOW PRESSURE
EJECTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CANOPY OF CLOUDS SLATED TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP MORE THAN 10-15F FROM AFTERNOON READINGS. A
RARE SEA BREEZE IN DECEMBER AT BDR AND JFK THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW RIDES UP THE E COAST SAT...ALTHOUGH ANOMALIES FROM
THE ENSEMBLES ARE LOW /-1 STD/ THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING DECENT WINDS
AND NEARLY A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON FOR THE TRI-STATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AT THE ONSET
WITH A CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ORANGE
COUNTY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FARTHER E...A MIX WITH AND CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW IN NYC IS FORECAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
METRO AREA.

WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE M-U 30S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE L30S LOOK FOR WET 
BULB TEMPS TO STAY IN THE MID 30S.  MODELS INDICATE AT BANDED PRECIP 
OVER NYC AND LI...BUT THIS OCCURS WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS
RA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS LI. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES NW OF NYC WITH AN
INCH OR LESS PREDICTED. NYC/LI/NERN NJ/AND COASTAL CT NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE WARM GROUND. ROAD
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM SO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON ROADS.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SW TO NE AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. BY THE PREDAWN...ALL AREAS WILL BE
DRY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING AND ROAD SURFACES ARE WET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INITIAL TROUGH AND SFC LOW DEPARTS AS ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. GENERAL 
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK WHICH AMPLIFIES 
THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THIS RIDGE GETS KICKED OUT AS THE TROUGH 
MOVES EASTWARD. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR NORTH BY THE END OF THE 
WEEK AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY...THEN PASSES OFF THE COAST 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY THIS TIME FRAME...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE 
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LITTLE QPF WITH 
THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE LACKING AND LIFT LOOKS WEAK. NEXT HIGH 
BUILDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH STRONGER STORM THEN APPROACHES 
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT. PRIMARY LOW PASSES ACROSS GRTLKS REGION REMAINING TO THE 
WEST...AND THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTION FOR 
SEVERAL RUNS NOW. AS SUCH...WARMER SCENARIO EXPECTED...BUT SOME SNOW 
INCLUDED IN GRIDS DUE TO SFC TEMPS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LESS 
SNOW IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE STORM. STAY 
TUNED.

BEHIND THE LOW...GUSTY SW TO W WINDS EXPECTED WITH COLDER TEMPS TO 
END THE WEEK. WINDS BEGIN TO ABATE LATER FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FROM SW AS GULF COAST SYSTEM 
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.  

WINDS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED. NY METRO EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE 
LEFT OF 310 INTO THE EARLY EVENING (00Z). 

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS 
ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z.

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC       
     04/20Z 25007KT    
     04/21Z 26006KT    
     04/22Z 26006KT    
     04/23Z 28006KT    
     05/00Z 29005KT    
     05/01Z 30006KT    
     05/02Z 31006KT    

KJFK...SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED...WINDS WORK BACK TO W AFTER 
SUNSET. 

KLGA...WIND DIRECTION EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-20 DEGREES LEFT 
OF 310 THIS AFTN. 

KTEB...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS 
ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z.

KHPN...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS 
ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z.

KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS 
ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z.

KISP...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS 
ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z.

KBDR...SEA BREEZE OFF SOUND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET BY 
22Z.

KGON...SEA BREEZE OFF SOUND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH 
SUNSET BY 22Z.
TONIGHT...VFR AS WINDS VEER EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING. 
SAT MORNING...CIGS LOWING THROUGH THE MORNING. VFR SHOULD HOLD UNTIL 
LATE AM.  

OUTLOOK 18Z SAT THROUGH WED... 
SAT AFTN...SUB-VFR WITH RAIN ON COAST...SNOW INLAND. RAIN CHANGES TO 
SNOW ON COAST TOWARDS SUNSET. SIG ICING ALOFT .
SAT NIGHT...IFR IN SNOW AND SIG ICING...IMPROVING AFT MIDNIGHT.  
SUN-TUE...VFR.
WED...IFR...WIND/RAIN

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SO SCA 
HOISTED FOR ALL AREAS.  THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES AND 
WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS COULD REACH GALES OVER 
THE OCEAN SATURDY NIGHT.  HOISTED A GALE WATCH FOR THE 
AFOREMENTIONED OCEAN ZONES WITH AN SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL HARBORS 
AND BAYS SATURDAY NIGHT.  

WINDS DIMINISH ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY...THEN TRANQUIL 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AS MUCH STRONGER STORMS 
APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE WITH A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOME OF THAT IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY 
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT 
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JST
MARINE...98/PW
HYDROLOGY...98