FXUS63 KIND 151640
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1140 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
MODELS AND AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL FAVOR CLEARING LINE FROM THE 
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REACHING LAF AROUND 19Z SOUTHEAST TO 
BLOOMINGTON AROUND 22Z. BUFKIT SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 17 KNOTS 
FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS TO DROP BELOW 10 
KNOTS THIS EVENING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH 
CONDITIONS UNCHANGED TOMORROW.

&&

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE WAS MADE TO CLEAN UP SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH 
RESPECT TO OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...AND TO ADD A CHANCE 
OF FLURRIES...WITH A FEW STATIONS...MAINLY OVER EASTERN 
ILLINOIS...REPORTING SAID FLURRIES FALLING FROM THE BACK EDGE OF THE 
STRATUS DECK. THESE FLURRIES...IF THEY DO FALL...WILL BE EXTREMELY 
LIGHT AND AMOUNT TO LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW FLAKES IN THE AIR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER LAKE ONTARIO ALONG 
WITH A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS OHIO 
TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER 
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
30S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SOON WITH THE 
NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE TEMPS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WL USE A BLEND. STRONG COLD 
AIR ADVECTION IS IN PLACE TODAY AS H8 TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -10C 
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS 
ACROSS INDIANA WITH CLEARING FOUND BACK BY THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CU 
RULE GOES STRONGLY POSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE 
SYSTEM BUILDS IN. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONCUR...VANQUISHING THE 
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. HENCE WILL AIM FOR A CLOUDY 
THIS MORNING BUT CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND STRONG 
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE AND ONLY SUN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON 
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE 3 HOURLY MAV TEMPS FOR HIGHS...WHICH WILL 
END UP WITH RATHER STEADY TEMPERATURES TODAY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT 
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE. WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR 
-9C WILL USE A BLEND OF THE COOLER METMOS AND WARMER MAVMOS FOR 
TONIGHTS LOWS. WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED IT WILL BE ONE OF THE 
COLDER NIGHTS OF THIS YOUNG WINTER SEASON.

THE HIGH WILL RETAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION ON 
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CU RULE APPEARS TO REMAIN STRONGLY 
POSITIVE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN. 
THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND 
COLD NIGHT. H8 TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A RECOVERY AS H8 WARM AIR 
ADVECTION BEGINS.  HENCE WILL FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS 
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THE BLEND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BEST 
WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE ON 
THURSDAY...AND WILL TRIM BACK MAVMOS HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN CASE 
WARMING IS A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. 

WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW ALSO AS MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS 
IN PLACE ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL 
INDIANA. HOWEVER IT IS WORTH A MENTION IN THE DISCUSSION THE THE GFS 
AND NAM HINTED AT SOME LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON THURSDAY. 
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. NO CHANGES TO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE 
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NIELD
PUBLIC...PUMA
AVIATION...KOCH