FXUS61 KCLE 261129
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY
SUNDAY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SSE NEAR THE OHIO PENNSYLVANIA BORDER
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR WAS
SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS FAR
EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THOUGH PRECIP IS ALL RAIN SHOWERS AT
3AM WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THERE COULD BE
A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS IT TAPERS OFF. IN THE FAR
WEST AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA WAS
MOVING NNE WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
MIDWEST LOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS TODAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEST...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER COULD
BE TRICKY TODAY. SATELLITE PICTURES WERE SHOWING A COUPLE OF
NARROW DRY SLOTS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SOME SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR BUT A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST SHOULD WORK.
WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER A LITTLE TODAY INTO
THE MID 30S...WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THEIR HIGHS EARLY THIS
MORNING...UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S THEN FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER MIDWEST LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES TONIGHT THEN
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
MOVES EAST APPROACHING THE EASTERN LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TONIGHT. THEN
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY...SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH WEAK TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
TURN THE WINDS MORE WESTERLY...STARTING TO SETUP SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS TURN MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THEN
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY 
WEDNESDAY.  MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...SO HELD 
OFF THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND 
THE LATEST GFS BOTH MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL 
LAKES ON THURSDAY...MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT 
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW 
SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN AND FLOW OFF THE 
LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT JUST EAST OF ERIE PA. STILL SOME LINGER IFR CIGS
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR RAPIDLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD CIGS BKN-OVC025-035 WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TODAY.
EXCEPT FOR A WEAK BAND OF SNOW NOW OVER ERN INDIANA WHICH WILL
ROTATE ACROSS NW OH LATER THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCLUDED FRONT NOW NEAR ERIE PA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE EARLY 
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING.  FLOW WILL 
BECOME BASICALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS A LITTLE 
SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH...NOT MOVING IT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.  
WINDS APPROACH GALE STRENGTH MONDAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  WILL 
HAVE TO WATCH...POTENTIAL FOR THE WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...RANDEL
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB