FXUS61 KCLE 010500
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1200 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE REGION IS IN A
LULL BEFORE WE GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THEY WILL NOT EXACTLY BE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE AT 850 MB WILL BE
WARMING. HOWEVER THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND 12Z MAINLY EAST OF CLE. SOME
LOCATIONS MAINLY OVER INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY AND INLAND NORTHWEST
PA COULD GET UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME IT SHOULD JUST BE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WILL
BE BREEZY SO SOME LOW VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR. HWO UPDATED TO
INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION AND AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED.
THE OTHER PROBLEM SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING SOME
LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE LAKE MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SWITCH OVER TO RAIN
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK AND INLAND LOCATIONS MY MIX WITH RAIN BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
OTHERWISE FOR EARLY TONIGHT THE CLOUDS MAY DECREASE SOME
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS
TO INDICATE THIS. WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THE FORECASTED
LOWS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH DEPARTING THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO THE AREA WILL TURN WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE CONFINED TO NW PA NEAR NY
BOARDER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THEN COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DIMINISHING
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TOMORROW TO CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE WEST REACH 50. IN CONTRAST...COOLEST TEMPS OVER
NE OH/NW PA.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
GIVES WAY TO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE LATER WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS
SHOWING VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR LOW TRACK WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST TO THE
WEST OF APPALACHIANS. NAM IS FURTHEST TO THE WEST WITH LOW
TRACK...BUT GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WHILE DIDN/T CHANGE MUCH FOR POPS AS AT LEAST LIKELY IS
STILL REASONABLE DURING THIS TIME...DID MAKE SOME ALTERATIONS TO
PRECIP TYPE. WITH LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE AREA PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANGEOVER TO ANY SNOW
SHOWERS NOT UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN
IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAKE OVER
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR SETTLED IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WENT A BIT COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS...SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
ESTABLISHED COLD AIR OVER THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGH PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY STRONG
SYSTEMS AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE WEAK SYSTEMS THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST...AT
LEAST FOR A WHILE... OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WOULD BE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE AND
THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND ACROSS NW PENNSYLVANIA. ECMWF
APPEARS TO DEEPEN AN EAST COAST SYSTEM TOO MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HANGS ONTO THE COLDEST AIR AND THE UPPER TROUGH ABOUT A DAY TOO
LONG. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS THE LAST TRAILING SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH. THE
NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND...BY NEXT
TUESDAY PERHAPS.
TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY SEEM AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE COLD. THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR WOULD SEEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. MEX/GFS AND THE GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE MAKES FRIDAY THE
COLDEST DAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NCEP TEMP GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY
WELL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S SATURDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY AS
WELL. SHOULD START TO WARM UP ON SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT BE IN AS MUCH
OF A HURRY AS THE GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTHWEST IS QUICKLY APPROACHING AND HAS BEGUN
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 8KFT ALTHOUGH LAKE ERIE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LOWER CIGS ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES ON TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLY NWRN PA WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW GENERATION THROUGH 12Z...ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING
WAVE. AFTER 13-15Z WARM AIR MOVING IN WILL BRING ANY PRECIP TO AN
END. EXPECT VFR CIGS AT KERI BY 16Z OR SO.
.OUTLOOK...
NON-VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THINGS HAVE BEGUN TO QUIET DOWN ON THE LAKE. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND DRAG A FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE. EXPECT SW TO W FLOW TO RAPIDLY INCREASE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
WINDS SHOULD GET TO GALES FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD. WATER LEVELS IN THE
WESTERN BASIN COULD GET TO WITHIN A FEW INCHES OF THE CRITICAL
MARK. LOW WATER ADVISORY ISSUED. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS.
AGAIN...THE SHORT DURATION OF THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD HELP IN
THIS MATTER. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY ON TUESDAY.
NEXT PROBLEM IS SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING THIS STORM...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME SE THEN E ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING NW FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WE COULD GET CLOSE TO GALES
AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY LATER
THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS A CLIPPER AFFECTS THE REGION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-142>149-
162>169.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LEZ142>144.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KUBINA
