FXUS61 KBGM 302045
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
345 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
CONCLUSION OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...WITH MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU. A TEMPORARY LULL
IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY FROM KTYX CONTINUING TO SHOW LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN
FINGER LAKES AS COOL AIR FLOWS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IN A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE COMING TO AN END AS THE EVENING
HOURS PROGRESS AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT ARRIVING UPPER SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY ALL NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH
SHOW WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE AREA FROM A PARENT
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MEAN RH PROGS SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
H90-80 LAYER AND THUS CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR OFF THE CLIFF WITH CURRENT
FORECAST VALUES POSSIBLY BEING A TAD BIT COOL. GENERALLY FOLLOWED
A MET/MAV BLEND HOWEVER SKEWED VALUES TOWARDS THE WARMER LAV
NUMBERS. GFS DOES SHOW PRECIP ARRIVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 06
AND 12Z FROM THE WEST AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WRF/ECMWF ARE
BOTH A TAD BIT SLOWER HOWEVER DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST WHILE MAINTAINING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS FAR
EASTERN ZONES. WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN COMBINATION WITH
MEAGER QPF VALUES SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAIN FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. WRF/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A 260-270 FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. H85 TEMPS INITIALLY OF -6 TO -7C WILL
BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AS LAKE/H85
TEMP DIFFERENTIALS APPROACH 14C BY LATE MORNING. QUICK LOOK AT
BUFR CROSS SECTIONS CENTERED AT KSYR AND KGTB DO SHOW AN OMEGA
COUPLET CO-LOCATED WITH THE MAX SNOW GROWTH REGION AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER FEEL THE BULK OF THIS FORCING WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FROM THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ANY EVENT...AM ANTICIPATING A DECENT LAKE
BAND TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FETCH DOWN THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE. MAIN CAVEAT TO A DECENT SNOWFALL WILL BE
WARMING H85 TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A
GENERAL 1-2" (SUB ADVISORY) SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY...WITH VALUES QUICKLY DROPPING OFF THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU
GO. FEEL THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KSYR BASED ON
EXPECTED WIND TRAJECTORIES...HOWEVER THIS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE ON WED AS H50 RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. 925 TEMPS WARM TO ROUGHLY 4-5C WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
ATTENTION WILL THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE TENN/OHIO RVR VLYS
AS THE DEEP (987 MB) LIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS STILL EXIST WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WITH THE
WRF TAKING THE MAIN SFC LOW WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE FEATURE RIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY.
IN ANY EVENT...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL RAIN INITIALLY WITH RAIN LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW BY
LATE THU MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TOWARDS -10 TO -11C WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL
INDICATION SUGGEST THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE
TUG HILL AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVELOPES THE AREA. STAY
TUNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WELL ANTICIPATED COLD AND AND UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE LAKES...WILL LAST THROUGH THE WHOLE LONG TERM PERIOD. BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN TROF OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING THAT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY.
WITH A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THROUGH 500 MB ASIDE
FROM EARLY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MOST OF THE
LAKE SNOWS WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA TOWARD WATERTOWN FRIDAY.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
BUT THE THINKING STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY SIMILAR. THE DIFFERENCE
LIES WITH THE UPPER TROF AS THE EURO DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW DUE
NORTH OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY...WHILE KEEPING A BROAD DEEP TROF ACROSS
THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST. THE GFS DOES NOT CUT OFF THE LOW AND INSTEAD
SUGGESTS THE TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS. IN EITHER CASE WINDS WILL VEER MORE INTO THE WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF
THE LAKE SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO OUR AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS
FAR OUT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY BUT WINDS MAY
VEER ENOUGH TO ALSO IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...INCLUDING
THE SYRACUSE AREA. LAKE DELTA T'S AROUND 20 SUGGEST MODERATE
INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME SO THIS TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE
CAREFULLY WATCHED FOR DECENT LAKE SNOWS.
HPC HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY SEEM A BIT TOO COLD WITH BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS SHOWING 925S AROUND -5.5C WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY WITH 925S HOLDING
STEADY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAS INDUCED SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ACRS CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED IFR AT THE ELEVATED SITES LIKE
KBGM. ACRS THE FINGER LAKES...SRN TIER AND IN NE PA CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. KSYR TO KRME WILL BE A
LITTLE SLOWER UNTIL THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE TOT HE SW. AFT 09Z THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WRN NY SPREADIN LIGHT SNOW
EASTWARD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW IS LIKELY BY 12Z TO REACH A
LINE FROM ABOUT KSYR TO KIPT AND CONTINUE TO PUSH E.
NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10-15 KT WILL LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND BACK
TO SW WINDS BY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR NE PA AND SRN
TIER NY WITH LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPING KSYR KRME.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR.
WED NIGHT...MVFR RAIN
THUR....MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
THUR NGT...IFR SNOW LAKE BANDS. OTHERWISE MVFR.
FRI...MVFR/IFR KSYR-KRME LAKE BANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPDATED...MONDAY MORNING
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF SNOW CONTINUES. SEE CLIMATE REPORT ISSUED ON THE 29TH
FOR THE 28TH. SEE THE RECORD REPORT ON THE INTERNET UNDER LOCAL
CLIMATE. HTTP:/WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BGM THE
SYRACUSE AREA HAS NOT HAD AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR
DAY SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH. THE WHOLE MONTH OF MARCH HAD LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SNOW WHICH SET A RECORD. THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE
THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE
AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEARDAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 2009 278 DAYS FEB 25TH TO NOV 29TH SO FAR
2) 1946 276 DAYSFEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
3) 1998274 DAYSMAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978 265 DAYS MAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941 263 DAYS MAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
SYRACUSE MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF AN INCH IS LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...BMW
CLIMATE...
