FXUS61 KGYX 011443
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
943 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PASS SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST TODAY WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF A SNOW SHOWER. CURRENT FCST LOOKS
GOOD. WILL JUST TWEAK THE CLOUD COVER A BIT AND ADJUST WINDS ON
THE WATERS A BIT. WINDS ON THE WATERS ARE A BIT MORE NW THIS AM.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTN.
PREV DISC...FOG PRODUCT SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.
PLENTY OF COLD AIR STRATUS STILL OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WITH
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS INDICATING OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR UPSLOPE SNOW IN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING LINGERING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE AREA. WEAK
RIDGING WILL NUDGE INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED SOUTHWARD AND
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SW AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL
HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH LOWER 20S EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW SENDS WARMER AIR
SURGING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP SURFACE RIDGING NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH
APPROACHING 50 DEGREES.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL QUICKLY
PUSH A BROAD BAND OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE GROUND IS FAIRLY SATURATED
FORECAST QPF ONLY AROUND AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AT A FAIRLY GOOD PACE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT. MAY HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH COASTAL FLOODING
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TIDES COMING IN AROUND 11 FEET THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN SOME SPLASH-OVER
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
MODELS GENERALLY COMING INTO LINE FOR SURFACE LOW TRACK ON
THURSDAY TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING...THEN INTO NORTHERN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK BY THURSDAY EVENING. LOOKING FOR RAIN TO GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF IN SOUTHERN ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BEST LIFT SHIFTS
NORTHWARD AND TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN PARTIAL
CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH CLOUDS AND LINGERING
SHOWERS PERSISTING IN THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BEFORE COLDER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SOUTHERN ZONES.
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NORTH. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. IN THE NORTH LOOKING FOR CLOUDS AND A FEW MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SOUTH AND MID TO
UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH.
WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD AT THE MOMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW CLOSE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WILL COME TO THE REGION BUT LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS BOTH KEEPING THIS SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT IT
SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE WITH JUST VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP
FAIR WEATHER GOING INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT CU WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY WITH JET STREAK OVERHEAD. WNW WINDS SHOULD BE AOB 12 KTS
BECOMING SW BY THE END OF THE 24 HR PERIOD.
LONG TERM...VFR WEDNESDAY WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TFH
