FXAK69 PAFG 101401
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
501 AM AKST THU DEC 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR: MODELS HANDLE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SIMILARLY THROUGH
72 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT BY SUN MORNING THE GFS AND ECMWF
HANDLE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS QUITE DIFFERENTLY. THE
GFS HAS A 507 DM LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WHILE THE ECMWF PROGS A 534 DM
TROUGH. OTHER FEATURES SHOW MUCH MORE AGREEMENT. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS 501 DM ON THE ECMWF PROG AND 507 DM ON THE
GFS. BLOCKING RIDGE OVER INTERIOR ALASKA EXTENDING NORTHWEST OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA THU MORNING WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE WEEKEND. BY
SUN MORNING THE RIDGE WILL BE A CLOSED HIGH EXTEND FROM SIBERIA TO
BRISTOL BAY.

SURFACE: A 1014 MB LOW 350 NM NORTHWEST OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST. AT 3 PM AKST THU...THE LOW WILL BE 1015 MB 270 NM NORTH
OF BARTER ISLAND. AT 3 AM AKST FRI...THE LOW WILL BE 1016 MB 80
NM NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
CANADA ON FRI. FOR THE BERING SEA...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AT 3 PM AKST FRI...THE LOW WILL BE 976 MB
290 NM WEST OF ADAK. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO 993 MB 600 NM WEST OF
ADAK BY 3 PM AKST SAT.

NORTH SLOPE: LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA
WILL BRING UP WINDS FOR THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS OVER MARINE ZONE 245 ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BRISK
LEVELS TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ZONE 204 FROM TODAY
THROUGH FRI. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COOLING BUT WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING TODAY WITH FREEZING RAIN MIXING AT TIMES ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST. FLURRIES MAY LINGER AFTER LOW EXITS INTO CANADA ON FRI.

WEST COAST: BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND AS THE WESTERN BERING SEA LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH
WEATHER REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WEST OVER THE AREA.

INTERIOR: TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH MOVES WEST AND ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO FLOW INTO
THE INTERIOR FROM THE NORTHEAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

$$

DA DEC 09