FXUS63 KPAH 281656 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE CENTER AROUND PRECIP 
CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN ON WED. 

THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF QUITE NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. 
SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL 
SERVE TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S AT MANY 
LOCATIONS. 

HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS A MID 
LEVEL TROF DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE LOOKS TO 
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN 
ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR BEHIND THE 
FRONT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY 
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE 
WITH 80 TO 100 PERCENT POPS OVER ABOUT THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST 
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING A THIRD TO A 
HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WRN KY BEFORE THE RAIN SHUTS OFF 
MONDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS MAY BE MUCH LOWER AS YOU GET INTO OUR FAR 
N/W AREAS. 

AFTER THE RAIN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
TAKE HOLD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES... 
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S DURING 
THE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 MON NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...A RATHER COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL HEAD EAST 
INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. HPC FORECAST SUPPORTS A SOLUTION CLOSER TO 
THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST 
UKMET/CANADIAN RUNS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE THE NRN AND SRN STREAM 
WAVES PHASING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION...AND 
WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS UP OVER MUCH OF THE 
REGION. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE AREA DRY WITH THE SYSTEM 
PASSING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF STATES. SINCE MODEL 
CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF HAS SOME RUN TO RUN 
CONSISTENCY...DECIDED TO UP POPS A BIT MORE INTO THE 40 TO 50 
PERCENT RANGE...ESP SOUTH AND ERN AREAS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLES COME INTO LINE BEFORE GOING INTO THE 
LIKELY CATEGORY THAT FAR OUT.

AFTER THAT...LOOKING FOR A RATHER CHILLY SNAP THU AS HIGH 
PRESSURE DROPS SE FROM CANADA. COULD EVEN SEE MID 20S SOME LOCATIONS 
THU NIGHT. 

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL CARRY VFR CIGS AND VSBY UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z SUNDAY AM. WILL 
FIRST INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KCGI AROUND 15Z AND SPREAD NORTHEAST 
REACHING KEVV AND KOWB BY EARLY AFTN. WILL LIKELY START TO INTRODUCE 
POPS IN NEXT ISSUANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST OUTSIDE THE 
VALID TIMES OF THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$