FXUS65 KSLC 280504
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
950 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A SPLITTING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. 
THIS EVENING IS SHARPLY SPLITTING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.  THE 
PRIMARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DEEPENING AND TRACKING 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CA WHILE THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS MOVING ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIONS A WEAK 
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS 
EVENING.  MID LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON STRETCHING FROM WRN ID THROUGH 
WRN NV THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD UTAH.

LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO UTAH TONIGHT.  
MINIMAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE OCCURRING 
IN A WEAKLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...SO RESPONSE FOR GIVEN FORCING 
WILL BE MODEST. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT 
CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT.  

EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL 
HELP HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP A BIT TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES F 
WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.  HAVE BUMPED UP 
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF 
THE STATE GIVEN THIS EVENINGS TRENDS.  ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN 
THE EAST A BIT AS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK WORKS ITS WAY 
ACROSS THE STATE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. 

MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON 
SATURDAY RESULTING ONLY IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST 
AREAS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION 
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION AXIS SETS UP 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES 
THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO THE 
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 7Z AND 10Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE 
AREA. CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 7000FT. VFR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD...WITH A 15 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR 
IN PATCHY FOG. 

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
AVIATION...HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)