FXUS61 KBTV 252326
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS STORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 527 PM EST WEDNESDAY...WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WITH THREE DISTINCT BANDS
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT GREATER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OVER
EASTERN VERMONT...LIKELY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
CATEGORICAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FOG...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 354 PM EST WEDNESDAY...BROAD SSW FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF LARGE
DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
FAIRLY TRANQUIL DAY ON THURSDAY... WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS. TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN WHILE MOVING EASTWARD. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OFF MID ATLC
COAST THURS EVENING EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY THURS NITE INTO
FRIDAY AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES...SO CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WX EVENT WILL
OCCUR IS HIGHER. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BTWN MODELS AS TO EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...BUT STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING...
JET DYNAMICS AND LIFT COMBINED WITH ADVECTION OF DEEP MSTR INTO THE
RGN WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN THURS NITE WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
ATMOS STILL RATHER MILD AT ONSET TIME OF PCPN...SO EXPECT IT BEGIN
AS RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS. AS UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST INTO THE REGION
HOWEVER...ATMOS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO COOL FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
THURS NITE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH AND THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. SHAPING UP AS AN
ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW EVENT...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUM PSBL
OVER THE HIR TRRN...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUM EXPECTED IN VLYS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THE STORM
WILL BE WINDING DOWN WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BOTH
BE MOVING FROM THE AREA OF EASTERN MAINE SATURDAY MORNING TOWARDS
NEW BRUNSWICK MAINE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE EXPECTING ALL SNOW ON
SATURDAY...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY IN TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REGION BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH...WITH
EVEN STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
NEWFOUNDLAND. WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HANGING ON THE LONGEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE STUBBORN MOUNTAIN WRAP AROUND
SNOW SHOWERS TEND TO LINGER THE LONGEST. GENERAL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE ALSO FEEDING THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINLY BE A RAIN EVENT...WITH SOME CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MID LVL S/W ROTATING ACRS ERN GRT LAKES WITH
ENUF LLVL MOIST FOR CLDS AND SCT -SHRA THAT WL CONT THRU 04-06Z.
LIGHT...MOIST S FLOW AND HISTORY OF PAST FEW NGTS SUGGEST MVFR-IFR
CONDS ARD/AFT 04Z FOR MOST LOCALES. AFT 12Z...MVFR-VFR CONDS WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS BTWN SYSTEMS.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR AND PSBLY SCT MVFR CONDS
BTWN 00Z FRI-12Z WITH SHRA ACTVTY DVLPG TOWARD LATTER HALF OF PERIOD.
ON FRIDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR IN DEVELOPING HEAVY...COLD RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR IN RA...CHANGING TO SN IN MTNS. SATURDAY...IFR
IN SN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RASN ELSEWHERE...CHANGING TO SN BY
EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS. SUNDAY...BECMG VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS
DIMINISHING. MONDAY...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT POSSIBLE
MVFR IN RW AND SW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SAW A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW BACK IN MID OCTOBER...THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAS NOT YET HAD ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW EVENT
OF THE SEASON. FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST MEASURABLE
SNOW HAPPENS NOVEMBER 6TH. SO WHERE DOES THIS LATE 1ST MEASURABLE
SNOW COMPARE TO THE RECORD BOOKS? HERE ARE THE 10 LATEST FIRST
SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH THE SEASONAL
TOTAL SNOW THAT FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/1/1948 40.7
4. 11/30/1918 69.6
5. 11/30/1953 83.6
6. 11/30/1960 51.6
7. 11/28/1913 56.5
8. 11/27/1941 57.7
9. 11/26/1982 80.5
10. 11/25/1957 94.9
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW
CLIMATE...
